Seems to me the UK will face a still higher death toll or a second lockdown. The simple fact is that for an easing of restrictions to work two things needed to have been sufficiently established during the lockdown: collective trust and individual discipline. Neither was. 1/4
The lockdown was always seen by large portions of the population - even among those who grudgingly complied - as an imposition. The seriousness of the situation was never communicated by this silly government or amplified sombrely enough by a largely superficial media. 2/4
As a result you never got critical buy-in mass of people thinking the gov’t imposed the right measures. Some thought it went to far; others thought it didn’t go far enough. The former will see any relaxation as license to party. The latter, as being pushed into mortal danger. 3/4
There was a chance to recover lost authority by announcing the easing of the lockdown in an unexpectedly professional, shrewd, clear, timely way. It crucially needed buy-in from all four nations. If anything, the shambles since Sunday has exacerbated the sense of tailspin. 4/4
