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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Much better than past Tuesdays.

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,510
Yesterday: 837
One week ago (5/5): 2,527

Newly reported cases
T: 20K
Y: 18K
5/5: 22K

Newly reported tests
T: 307K
Y: 388K
5/5: 259K

Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 5%
5/5: 9%
Tuesdays are typically awful days as states work to clear weekend backlogs and can report a lot of cases and deaths. While 1,500 deaths in a day is indeed awful, it is better than the past 4 Tuesdays, where between 2,128 and 2,555 deaths were reported each time.
Folks, I don't have a prediction for what happens next. There are forces pulling in opposite directions (less distancing, but more masks, weather may matter, etc.) so the range of possibilities is wide.

But the numbers HAVE gotten appreciably better over the past week or so.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,430
Yesterday: 786
One week ago (5/12): 1,543

Newly reported cases
T: 21K
Y: 20K
5/12: 21K

Newly reported tests
T: 399K
Y: 338K
5/12: 305K

Positive test rate
T: 5%
Y: 6%
5/12: 7%
Tuesdays are often quite bad as weekend reporting backlogs are cleared. But the past two Tuesdays have shown some improvement (1,430 and 1,543) after several Tuesdays in a row with 2,000+ deaths. We'll see what tomorrow and Thursday (also days that can produce bad numbers) bring.
Meanwhile, the positive test rate continues to decline. Over the past 7 days, it has been 6.2%, roughly half what the 7-day trailing average was on May 1 (12.1%). That may partly reflect more widespread availability of testing in the general population but still a good sign.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
GA, FL & TX have probably been the most focused-upon states for opening early, but if you look at mobility data, they're on the low end compared to neighbors.

apple.com/covid19/mobili…

LA -29%
*FL -27%*
*TX -14%*
NM -8%
TN -3%
*GA -2%*
AR -1%
NC +1%
MS +2%
OK +5%
AL +10%
SC +21%
One plausible theory is if there's a big media brouhaha over re-opening, it may actually make people more cautious:

* They may perceive more risk
* They may want to set a good example if their state is scrutinized
* Dems in the states may view staying home as a partisan signal
The other states are generally re-opening also, and not on terribly different schedules than GA/FL/TX. They've just received less media fanfare while doing so, and their governors are more popular.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths per day as restrictions are relaxed to the point where we get an R of ~1.

covid19-projections.com
But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It's not hard to imagine some parameters where we're down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)!

IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty.
Importantly also, there's less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it's unlikely there's a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It's the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months.
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