Yeah there are like 4 confounding issues:
1) "Opening" is often incremental (many things were never closed and only some of the closed things are opening) but is portrayed in the media as absolute
2) People's actual behavior is only loosely tied to a state's official policies
1) "Opening" is often incremental (many things were never closed and only some of the closed things are opening) but is portrayed in the media as absolute
2) People's actual behavior is only loosely tied to a state's official policies
3) Some factors are tending to produce improvement (mask-wearing, warmer weather, more testing) at the same time opening up may increase spread
4. On top of all that, the data is inherently fairly noisy and there are lots of debates about how to account for tests, etc
4. On top of all that, the data is inherently fairly noisy and there are lots of debates about how to account for tests, etc
My value-add is not my expertise on public policy but in helping to provide guidance on what messy real-time data looks like when debated under fraught political circumstances.
I think people should be alert to the possibility of noisy, confusing, possibly misleading signals.
I think people should be alert to the possibility of noisy, confusing, possibly misleading signals.
