15 Things I Learned in Bitcoin's 3rd Epoch 🧵👇
(that may or may not help you in its 4th)
1/
They said it was too late in 2011. In 2013. 2016 and 2019.
It's not too late. The best day to buy bitcoin is today.
Be patient. You are witnessing the birth of a new form of money.
(that may or may not help you in its 4th)
1/
They said it was too late in 2011. In 2013. 2016 and 2019.
It's not too late. The best day to buy bitcoin is today.
Be patient. You are witnessing the birth of a new form of money.
2/
Runescape lessons: the surest way to get rich is to stop playing for a while.
OG wisdom was: if you've managed to snag a limited edition item (e.g. a Santa Hat), go away for a couple of years - when you return, it'll be worth orders of magnitude more.
Same applies to BTC.
Runescape lessons: the surest way to get rich is to stop playing for a while.
OG wisdom was: if you've managed to snag a limited edition item (e.g. a Santa Hat), go away for a couple of years - when you return, it'll be worth orders of magnitude more.
Same applies to BTC.
3/
The simpler the strategy, the better.
Resist overcomplicating things.
The simpler the strategy, the better.
Resist overcomplicating things.
4/
Learn to talk to your instincts.
You'll never be 100% sure. By the time you are >90%, your hypothesis likely won't exist in its original state anymore.
Learn to talk to your instincts.
You'll never be 100% sure. By the time you are >90%, your hypothesis likely won't exist in its original state anymore.
5/
Discipline > sofistication.
Humbleness is a tricky thing. By the time you *think* you have it... you don't have it anymore.
Discipline > sofistication.
Humbleness is a tricky thing. By the time you *think* you have it... you don't have it anymore.
6/
In equities, you don't bet against the FED.
In crypto, if there's anything that resembles a FED-like entity, at the time you're reading this - avoid trading against it.
In equities, you don't bet against the FED.
In crypto, if there's anything that resembles a FED-like entity, at the time you're reading this - avoid trading against it.
7/
The quintessential value driver for BTC, despite what some scientists will tell you, is not scarcity, nor network activity, nor adoption.
Most likely, it's time.
The quintessential value driver for BTC, despite what some scientists will tell you, is not scarcity, nor network activity, nor adoption.
Most likely, it's time.
8/
If you *really* need an objective, "all-encompassing" metric to guide your market cycle assessment... look at MVRV. It's simple and it's telling.
If you *really* need an objective, "all-encompassing" metric to guide your market cycle assessment... look at MVRV. It's simple and it's telling.
9/
3 "a-ha" moments in your relationship with altcoins:
- Every late-cycle run up irrevocably surfaces a wave of shiny new sh*t.
- 99% are outright scams; among the remaining there are indisputably a couple of 10-100Xs.
- Unlike BTC, their gains won't compound over cycles.
3 "a-ha" moments in your relationship with altcoins:
- Every late-cycle run up irrevocably surfaces a wave of shiny new sh*t.
- 99% are outright scams; among the remaining there are indisputably a couple of 10-100Xs.
- Unlike BTC, their gains won't compound over cycles.
10/
No matter how well you do, there will always be someone making more money than you. If you can't cope with this, you're doomed.
No matter how well you do, there will always be someone making more money than you. If you can't cope with this, you're doomed.
11/
The market is a chronocracy: the longer you're in, the better (rewarded) you get.
Your objective shouldn't be to outpace, but to outlast.
Time in the market > timing the market
The market is a chronocracy: the longer you're in, the better (rewarded) you get.
Your objective shouldn't be to outpace, but to outlast.
Time in the market > timing the market
12/
Yes, there is alpha on the table.
No, there's no long-lasting edge.
Yes, there is alpha on the table.
No, there's no long-lasting edge.
13/
As in most markets, "the house always wins".
Here, in addition, the "house always gets hacked".
KYC: know your custodian.
Be wary.
As in most markets, "the house always wins".
Here, in addition, the "house always gets hacked".
KYC: know your custodian.
Be wary.
14/
You are not a genius. You are not blessed. Mostly, you are lucky. Don't screw the chance.
You are not a genius. You are not blessed. Mostly, you are lucky. Don't screw the chance.
15/
The opportunity is passing right in front of you. One. Block. At. A. Time. There's nothing you can do to change it. When will you start letting it change you?
⏰🕰️
The opportunity is passing right in front of you. One. Block. At. A. Time. There's nothing you can do to change it. When will you start letting it change you?
⏰🕰️
