Thread by @Greens4HS2

We say demand for rail travel will grow in future. Why? This thread explains./1

Our Green travel strategy for a zero-CO2 world involves: 1 reducing total travel; 2 moving fully to sustainable modes of travel; 3 integrating sustainable modes so multi-mode journeys are easy (Objectives: TR011 policy.greenparty.org.uk/tr.html#TR011). So why will rail travel increase? /2

To reduce CO2 for distances further than you can walk or cycle, shifting from car or air to electrified rail is by far the best option. (BBC: 👇. The numbers are here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…). /3

(Rail in future will create less than 41g as that includes obsolescent diesels. #HS2 will be about 10g rather than 6g at the start, but it will reduce as grid electricity decarbonises). There is a big CO2 gain for every journey taken by electric train rather than car / plane. /4

Several studies have looked at how we will be travelling in a zero-CO2 UK - such as this excellent one by @centre_alt_tech: cat.org.uk/info-resources…. (Transport is section 3.3.2) /5

In the @centre_alt_tech scenario, total travel will be 17% lower even though population will have grown by 7% by 2030 and 11% by 2040. This is because there will be more working from home, as we have seen recently, and we will tend to live nearer to where we work. /6

A chunk of the car travel will shift to rail as it’s lower CO2. And ⅔ of domestic air will go to rail. As a result, though total travel falls, distance travelled by rail will need to rise by 30%. Other studies have similar shifts. This diagram 👇 shows these shifts. /7

Similarly, our own @TheGreenParty manifesto at the last general election (greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/E…, page 16) envisaged a huge shift to rail which would result in an increase in train travel by about 50%. /8

So even in a Green future where we are travelling much less, we will see much more travel by rail. And that will be locally, into and out of town; between centres (such as Birmingham, Derby and Nottingham, or Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds), and nationally. /9

In the next mini-thread, we’ll show why upgrading our current rail network, which is nearly full at key points, isn't enough for this growth. The only way to handle it is to build new lines. And in another thread we’ll look at how CV-19 might impact things in the long run. /end

(that thread is here:

https://twitter.com/Greens4HS2/status/1261686207735619585?s=20

)

And if you want to see why the "120 years to carbon neutral" thing is a myth and how HS2 is good for our CO2 emissions, read this thread of ours:

https://twitter.com/Greens4HS2/status/1309845717591175168?s=20