I have very old friends who live in a "freeze to death in winter" climate, one of the coldest places in America.
"You should get a wood stove, and a couple of tons of wood. Just in case."
Odds they'll do it: 50%.
Since 2002, I've been conscious of the big risks.
I just don't think people understand what is happening yet, how high the stakes of this particular game are, and how uncertain the outcomes
Firstly, America is the long pole in the global tent: it's where The Future is designed, even if it's manufactured in China. It's the big market, home of infinite capital.
But it's been broken a while: 1990s peace dividend misallocated
America would have ruled the world.
1) intelligence agencies become a war marketing department: culture of truth goes out the window
2) America goes bankrupt
3) America loses
Yes, 2008 is *America went bankrupt*.
But the war grinds on, and the costs mount, and there's just no way to carry a war for two decades.
You all know this, if you live in America. You've watched the changes. Middle class is fine, everybody else is in hell, with rising filthy flood water
It's *entirely unprecedented*.
They started by fighting evolution, now they fight germ theory.
That's modernity dying, right here, right now.
How are we to exit the covid era without masks and vaccines?
Maybe this is just human instinct, the triumph of will over reason. But to me, it looks like abandoning our position.
I first worked on pandemics well over 10 years ago guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php and, really, nobody gave a shit then either.
I never published my old piece on the break up of America either: drugs, guns, abortion, gay marriage: permanent wedges.
To the rest of you: get moving. If you are asleep at the wheel and this summer goes badly, when winter hits, America is going to turn into a genuinely awful place filed with suffering.
I've been on x-risk *forever*. Again, resiliencemaps.org it's the tool for becoming resilience in the face of all of this. It's been open source since like 2010.
You have to listen, and plan, now.
it's about 10 years old, which gives you a sense of how inevitable this all was