We've been inundated with messages from people who believe they had Covid-19 early this year, and many who suspect they had it back in 2019.
Is that even possible? There’s a ton of speculation out there, so we compiled an explainer on the evidence. 1/8
nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/…
Is that even possible? There’s a ton of speculation out there, so we compiled an explainer on the evidence. 1/8
nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/…
One key data point:
A flu study group in Seattle, which was an early Covid epicenter, has now examined *thousands* of stored samples from January/February. The first Covid hit was Feb 20. That strongly suggests the virus was a miniscule fraction of illnesses early this year. 2/8
A flu study group in Seattle, which was an early Covid epicenter, has now examined *thousands* of stored samples from January/February. The first Covid hit was Feb 20. That strongly suggests the virus was a miniscule fraction of illnesses early this year. 2/8
But could it have been circulating in January? Yes. In fact, a California death on Feb 6, now linked to coronavirus by tissue sample, is compelling evidence there was some level of community transmission — perhaps very limited — by the end of January. 3/8
nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…
nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…
What about earlier? In December? The strongest indicators are two people north of Seattle who got sick and then months later had positive antibody tests. But there’s reason to be skeptical that their December illnesses were Covid, before it emerged as an outbreak in Wuhan. 4/8
County health officials said today it may be more likely those people had a different illness followed by a mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection later. Researcher @trvrb said that scenario is more likely, estimating perhaps a 2% chance it was actually Covid. 5/8
Researchers I talked to are open to the idea that there may have been random U.S. introductions in December. But there are two main reasons to be skeptical that there was any significant spread at that point. 6/8
First, they can see in tracing the tiny genetic mutations of the virus that U.S. cases are offspring of the cases that were developing in Wuhan in December. 7/8
nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…
nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…
Second, the coronavirus moves rapidly, with one infected person spreading to about four others on average. If the virus had established in the U.S. in December and began quadrupling through generations, the devastating U.S. outbreak likely would have arrived much earlier. 8/8
