Mini-report from NYC: mood has shifted over the past few weeks as we see our numbers on the decline, the weather warms up, and neighborhood restaurants & bars reinvent themselves as curbside pickup/delivery depots. It got me thinking about what to expect for the next few years... 
Surviving restaurants will revamp what & how they sell. Many offer online packages of produce & toilet paper. Michelin-starred @MarcForgione offered just two dishes for pickup, and sold out. Last night, bars opened up for window service. I saw 4 people sitting on the sidewalk.
There will be a time when restaurants can offer in-dining service, but the social distancing restrictions might render the businesses completely unprofitable. Maxing creative pickup & delivery orders will be key to survival. Outdoor summer eating & drinking will be a thing.
This got me thinking: isn't it illegal to drink on the street or in parks? Very curious if NYPD will just look the other way...or only in certain neighborhoods. 👀 This is *very* important to get right.
Street-level retail has struggled for years & that's not changing. Local shops need to predict most needed products + convert to delivery/pickup. Will require online ordering systems. Reference: @WholeFoods now has delivery racks in the middle of the store where the hot bar was.
On supply chains: right now, there is plenty of food, it's just not the food you are used to seeing. And some staples are gone. Nothing is on sale, and many things don't have price labels. Also, unusual (for USA) and off-season cuts of meat: a turkey leg, a whole duck, oxtail.
Side note: my 🇧🇷 husband loves oxtail (rabada) so much that when my MIL asked him what *my* favorite meal was so she could make it for my bday, he LIED and said oxtail. I'm not such a fan, but didn't want to insult her. But it stuck. After a few yrs, I finally confessed. 🤣
Another big change: transportation. New Yorkers rely on subways & buses. This is going to be a big challenge. But I do expect a heavy push towards @CitiBikeNYC, scooting, and rollerblades through the fall. (BTW, most models are sold out!)
These methods of transportation work until we hit November/December. By that time, we should know if there will be a second wave. If so, we're probably under a new set of restrictions. If not, public transportation usage is likely to increase. COVID had favorable timing.
We're clearly spending more time outside this summer, which is a good thing (and pls read @MartyMakary's op-ed below!) But this also means that there is likely to be an increase in public urination if the city doesn't adapt. (h/t @SCJ_BusRules) nytimes.com/2020/05/14/opi…
For parents, the big Q is summer. Most kids go to indoor day "camps." Idea: @nycgov should spin up outdoor, small-group camps that have priority access to green/open spaces that are currently closed. Borrow from the Danish "outdoor kindergarten" model. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forest_ki…
More people will leave the city for the summer, with *hopes* of returning to school in the fall. Road trips will be the new hot vacation. But if you are coming *from* NYC, be prepared to quarantine. Most likely vaca plans: camping.
Here's another BIG one specific to NYC: WFH in the spring is not the same as WFH in NYC summer. It's going to get HOT, people. Window air conditioning units reign in NYC, and they are loud. Your laptop will get hot. It's not going to be fun. cnbc.com/2018/07/26/ac-…
I actually think that hot summers are what will push NYC workers back to their company offices. Or if you can afford it, you will leave the city for a month or two. I was exclusively WFH in NYC for 4 years, so trust me on this one.
There's another sadder realization coming: just how many people we have lost. Not to be excessively morbid, but the other day I saw a man and who I presumed to be his daughter heading into a building. He was holding bubble wrap, his daughter held a USPS "cremated remains" box.
We have lost a few small business owners, including 2 people were veritable neighborhood institutions. It's sad enough walking past their doors now, which have handwritten signs and flowers. If their businesses reopen, what is that even going to feel like?
