Oh FFS. 1/
Here's the 7-day rolling average of new cases in Texas. Looks pretty bad! 2/ 
BUT, here's the 7-day rolling average of tests in Texas. 3/
And here's the 7-day rolling average of *positive* tests in Texas. 4/
Which, maybe if Texas had stayed shut down we'd have seen an even greater drop. There's an honest debate to be had here. But the only way we have an honest debate is with honest reporting, and that is in short supply. 5/
So I come back to something I said early on. If the only place you can go to get the positive side of the story is crackpots, then people will gravitate to crackpots. Do better. 6/6
People are having trouble with this, so let me explain. If a caseload in a state is constant, and you test more people, you're going to appear to get more cases. If it's declining and you test a *lot* more people, same effect. 7/6
Did Texas make the right policy choice here? IDK. I was openly skeptical of what Georgia was doing, and in a month or two the air conditioning capitol of the world might look like NYC. 8/6
Like I said, there is room for a vigorous, robust and honest public debate. That is not what CNN is giving here. It has a storyline it wants to write, and by God it is going to write it. 9/6
And it isn't just here. It's Wisconsin, and Georgia, and Florida (twice!) and others I've probably forgotten. 10/6
And this matters. The stakes on re-opening and staying closed are incredibly high, so it's crucial to get a full set of facts out there. For people who *do* pay attention, it fosters cynicism and distrust of media and experts at a time we need them. 11/6
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
