Thread by @SeanTrende

So with yesterday's census numbers we can get a guess as to how the 2020 apportionment will shake out. Winners are TX, FL, NC, CO, AZ, MT, and OR. Losers are AL, CA, MN, IL, MI, OH, WV, PA, NY and RI.

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/…

Rhode Island will go down to one house district, meaning that we'll have the highest percentage of states with single-representative districts since the 1830s (and at that time we were adding states). It's time to increase the size of the House.

On the plus side, Montana probably gets its second House seat back, which might mitigate this. But it's still a problem.

If we continue the trends from the last two years, in 2030 CA would lose another two, CT -1, FL+1, GA+1, ID+1 (!!!), IL -2, MN might get the seat it loses back, NV+1, NJ-1, NY-3 (!!!), NC+1, PA-1, TX+2, UT+1, and WI-1.

To put this in perspective, California last had fewer than 27 congressional districts after the 1800 census, and PA last had fewer than 18 in 1790. Needless to say, their populations have grown a touch since then.

One blockbuster battle that will shape up in the next couple redistrictings: in a lot of these northern states, majority-minority districts will have to be eliminated.

It is really, really difficult (maybe impossible) to draw three Af-Am majority districts in NY and IL when IL has only 15 districts and NY has 23. It's hard enough to maintain them with 27 and 18!!! Needless to say, the politics of this will be . . . difficult.

BTW, if you're curious how well we can project 2030 from the beginning of the decade, the answer is "surprisingly well." Here's my census projections from 2011. Not perfect, but pretty good, especially when you read about the last 8 out.

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/…

So I was born shortly after the 1970 apportionment. Since then, these are the overall changes incl 2020(proj) : NY -13 (!!!), OH-8, PA-8, IL-7, MI-6, MA-3, NJ-3, AL-2, IN-2, IA-2, LA-2, MO-2, WV-2, CT-1, KS-1, KY-1, MN-1, MS-1, OK-1, RI-1, SD-1, WI-1.

On the "gain" side of the ledger: TX+15(!!!), FL+14, CA+9, AZ+6, GA+4, WA+3, NC+3, NV+3, CO+3, UT+2, OR+2, VA+1, TN+1, SC+1, NM+1.