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0/ Our team @Delphi_Digital put out a State of #Bitcoin 2020 report earlier this week to commemorate the halving.

There was a bit of analysis we had to leave out to get it out on time. After looking in further, the takeaways were too bullish not to share. Let's dive in:
1/ Below is a visual breakout of % of supply held by wallet size. Early distribution is a bit chaotic bc of low price & high issuance. Things start to normalize around 2013, with the growth of supply in smaller wallets continuing until today (bottom of chart)
2/ Tabular view of prev chart. % held in wallets w/ less than 10 $BTC has grown from 6.1% in Jan ‘15 to 14.3% today. Supply held by small holders is actually understated bc so much is held on exchanges. Other notable trend was growth in supply held in wallets sized 1k to 10k $BTC
3/ Sliced differently, here we measure the growth in quantity of wallets by specific size. As expected, there's sizable growth in the # of smaller wallets, but there’s also growth in the # of wallets holding 1k to 10k $BTC.
4/ The growth in both, the supply sitting in wallets with 1k-10k BTC and the growth in the # of wallets holding 1k-10k BTC is worth looking into further. Some likely causes we explore:
1) BTC moving to exchanges
2) BTC moving into custody solutions
3) accumulation by whales
5/ The large Dec ‘18 jump in the chart below helps provide some confirmation that wallets holding 1k-10k $BTC are often exchange wallets. During that 9 day window, BTC on exchanges increased by 849k and BTC in wallets holding between 1k-10k BTC jumped by a near identical 825k
6/ There’s the same amount of BTC sitting on exchanges today as there was at the start of 2019. Simultaneously, the amount of BTC in wallets holding 1k-10k has gone up by over 500k BTC, and the quantity of those wallets is up by more than 250 to slightly over 2k wallets.
7/ This implies the accumulation is likely taking place off-exchange. We moved onto the second of our three likely causes, custody solutions. Bitcoin held in institutional custody solutions would be held in the most secure way possible, with a multisig address.
8/ Since multisig addresses exist on-chain under the P2SH address type, we were able to aggregate the total amount of bitcoin held in multisigs. That total has only grown by about 160k from the beginning of 2019 until today. That still leaves a lot of supply unaccounted for.
9/ A final potential source could be accumulation by whales. Historically, the # of these wallets tends to increase during price lulls (green), and decrease as price picks up (red), indicating potential whale accumulation and subsequent distribution through price cycles.
10/ Although growth in # of wallets in the 1k-10k group primarily took place in 2019, and remained mostly flat in 2020, we’re still seeing the amount of BTC held in those wallets go up. All while $BTC on exchanges has dropped by nearly 250k. This suggests accumulation continues
11/ The composition of the current holder base looks nearly identical to the one leading into the 2nd halving:

59% of BTC supply hasn’t moved in at least year 1yr, this stood at 58% in 2016
27.8% of BTC supply hasn’t moved in at least 3yrs, 27.1% in 2016
12/ Liquid supply (moved within last 3m) is lower at 20% vs 23.2% in 2016. Declining increases in liquid supply during points of high volatility might indicate that many weak hands have been shaken out. Growth in derivatives can also account for part of this though.
13/ As LT holders continue to hold and weak hands decline, the holder base is in a good position to maximize the impact new demand has on price. Coupling that w/ the macro backdrop and investments/endorsements from the likes of PTJ makes it difficult to not be bullish BTC.
14/ I cover some of these topics and more in a recent episode of unconfirmed with @laurashin

15/ As always, this wouldn't be possible without the help of some of the top data providers in the space 🙏

@glassnode @coinmetrics @nic__carter @KaikoData @mikealfred @TheTIEIO @renato_shira @skewdotcom
16/ Also, if you haven't already be sure to check out our full State of Bitcoin 2020 report here: delphidigital.io/halving

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