Profile picture
, 6 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Should you expect the reopen to cause more growth in new cases? (based on the feedback on my previous tweet, yes). But if you look at European countries with early reopen steps, they managed to keep the descent in place. Replicable?

@YossiGestetner @TheStalwart @CramersShirt
Czech Republic, descent for several weeks after reopen (although a slight question mark in recent days)
Austria, very low and stable case count after reopen
Norway: New cases trending towards zero even after reopening, and aggressive testing
Denmark, clear descenting path even after reopening in mid-April.
Bottom line: Reopening does not have to be associated with acceleration in recorded cases. Various European countries with early reopen have seen generally positive trends extend.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Jens Nordvig

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jnordvig see all

Profile picture
Jens Nordvig
@jnordvig
There is still a debate about whether coronavirus will die out naturally due to warmer whether as we enter the summer period, in the US, Europe, etc. But there is remarkably little detailed research on this. A few observations = THREAD
Xu R., Rahmandad H., Gupta M., DiGennaro C., Ghaffarzadegan N., Amini H., Jalali M.S. (2020). Weather
Conditions and COVID-19 Transmission: Estimates and Projections. The finding here is a MODERATE IMPACT

projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid19/…
Academics such as @mlipsitch have also made the point that there is an important interaction between herd immunity and seasonality => seasonality will be less important when there is a low level of herd immunity still the message from serology research)

ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-…
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Jens Nordvig
@jnordvig
It is often impossible to reach a consensus in any debate about coronavirus because some look at confirmed cases, and some look at testing (and do not believe the trend in confirmed cases means anything).

Below, an attempt to bridge the gap in one indicator (Texas an example)...
Here is the 'raw' Texas picture, taken from the @ExanteData daily feed. It shows that the 7-day moving average of daily new cases is trending higher.

But is that just due to testing?
Here is another way of looking at the data. We have deflated the daily new cases count with the growth in testing (like you deflate nominal GDP with a price deflator / inflation). Then the trend looks stable in the last 2-3 weeks (note the bars are 7-day MAs here)
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Jens Nordvig
@jnordvig
A lot of people follow @tomaspueyo because his Medium article went viral. But I think the points he made on Sweden today are not accurate (that Sweden derived no economic benefit from its different path). Hence, some data below, so you can make your own judgement...
First, Sweden's different model does seem to have implied a fairly different impact than on other European economies on various indicators. Industrial production is the most extreme example, Sweden was flat (other European countries collapsing).
Another indicator, which is less influenced by exports (where Sweden is suffering for global reasons) is the services PMI. It has dropped a lot less in Sweden than in many other economies (smaller cross-section here, due to limited data availability).
Read 5 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!