Thread by @Barton_options

1/ My wish list of short-term progress on COVID19.

1. low-cost & widely available 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 IgG tests
2. solid understanding of antibody response of infected K-12/college kids.
3. efficacy study on prophylactic and early (48hr from symptom onset) of antivirals

2/ If major progress can be made in these areas in 4-5 weeks, then re-opening can proceed in an informed/targeted way both at an individual level and at the national level.

3/ 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 IgG tests produce useful info:
a. who have immunity at a given point in time
b. regularly scheduled tests give us an idea of half-life of this immunity.

both are helpful on the timing of relaxing social distancing at individual and society levels

4/ antibody responses in kids. recent data show really low IgG prevalence among kids


plus some convoluted age-related patterns of coronavirus antibody distribution

https://twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1261808097602883584?s=20

5/ If kids do have a hard time generating antibodies, then prolonged school closure is justified. Otherwise, school can be reopened in the fall

6/ Almost all antivirals need to be used very early to be effective (e.g. Tamiflu for Influenza A, Truvada for HIV). We sorely need clinical trial data to understand the efficacy of various antivirals that have been proposed:
remdesivir, CQ/HCQ, ivermectin etc.

FIN