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This new study of scanners has identified two cases of suspected coronavirus , on November 16 and 17. "We have one case on November 29, three cases on December 2, one case on December 10, one case on December 13, one case on December 27, two cases on January 3
and after, it gradually increases ..." , details Michel Schmitt.

- suspected & confirmed Coronavirus cases in Alsace, France

mobile.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
Early strain maybe less contagious than current strain

Makes you wonder how many EVALI patients in the US last year were actually Covid19
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Barton
@Barton_options
Regarding the Swedish no-lockdown experiment, I don't think it proves or disapproves lockdown is right or not.

Sweden took a bet that no effective treatment could be developed within the next 6-9 month, so CFR would not materially improve. Lockdown only delays the inevitable
Many Asian countries, South Korea, Singapore, China, gambled in the other way, they bet that CFR can be reduced drastically within 2-4 months after the start of the pandemic, as COVID19 is understood more. So they sacrificed their economy in exchange for better chance of survival
We won't know which decision is the "right" or "wrong" one until next year.

It is perhaps most productive to withhold judgment until the end of the pandemic.

BTW, if Pepcid (famotidine) turns out to be effective, I think it is worth the wait.
Read 4 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
Coronavirus strategy --

When the US find itself in times of pandemic
President Donnie comes to me
Speaking words of madness, let it spread.
And in my hour of darkness
My governor is standing right in front of TV
Speaking words of insanity, let it spread,

let it spread..
Let it spread - Exhibit A

reopening while your new case count and death count
is close to ATH.

data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The reason why?

Hospital beds seemingly under-utilized. as in hospitals can take more patients, so it is okay to have more infection and death?!

see the numbers highlighted by arrows

data from txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Read 9 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
Spoke with some CEO friends in China yesterday.

public health:
- most people are comfortable resuming life without participating high-risk activities (but people are getting more relaxed every day)
- people recognize prolonged (1+ year) social distancing unsustainable.
- people recognize that prolonged border control in China is going to be problematic, as most other countries are on track to get herd immunity sooner than China.
- working age people in China more fearful of COVID19 than average folks here in the US
Economic outlook:
- people recognize export-led growth has ended. domestic demand is on everyone's focus
- credit is super tight for SME
- everybody is looking for way to get government investment and to make money off the government.
Read 4 tweets

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