Thread by @VadimPlz

Ok, couple of thoughts on #tankers noise. Here we go:
Bullish thesis:
1) contango for longer. Obviously dead now, no if and but. Dead. If it reappears it'll be a whole new case, for a bunch of different reasons.
2) supply/demand. Nonsense.

Supply is rising, demand is falling that's a reality. No matter how slow supply is rising when demand is peaked and then falling (secular!) this is a bad combination. Wanna proof? #drybulk. Ok, but how about scrapping?
3) first of all. You need rates to fall below OPEC for some

time and kind of a short-term hopeless consensus to kick this cycle, which is not a good position to be in from shareholders perspective. Secondly it'll take time and has to overcome the supply so that the whole tonnage really starts to contract, not just offsets increase.

Hasn't worked out well for #drybulk so far and definitely not a reason to be in shares now. More of it, and here is a hypothesis territory. My assumption is the inviromental pressure on shipping as a whole and scrapping particular will increase substantial in the near future and

if it coexists with necessity from all kind of shippers not only tankers to scrap its oldies and low steel prices it will become a true black swan event, when you have an asset which suddenly becomes a big liability. But again it's just a probability, let's get back to facts.

4) But the cash, but the dividends! Here it gets more tricky. The bears thesis here is more like a "I don't care" thesis. Why? Because easy come, easy go. If a really bad market (again #drybulk style) is ahead for longer, the companies will eat out the cash and then some.

From here the case's getting more balanced and the bear thesis has to be proven as well since that bad situation is not given - too much uncertainty. The dividends today niether bullish nor bearish from fundamental perspective, but slightly more bearish from trading one...

5) NAV discount. I don't see any evidence it has any impact on SPs on any timeframe. It could matter only when the management is gonna and able to defend the SP below NAV. $oet $adcs maybe the case. And one more thing. Normaly a really big losses may come from two sources:

Overleverage and assets which are presumed to be cheap. And hence NAV is giving a false sense of safety. $NMM, $GLNG etc. investors know it hard way I guess.
So here is my last bearish thesis:

You.🤔 If you're reading this, you're most likely individual investor long tankers

(long #uranium as well as😉). Nothing bad, except you're a prey here from positioning perspective. There are two ways to win against professional shorts (yes, they are)- by money or timeframe. Both factors are against you currently, it however could changed.
Finally the bullish:

Every six months or more time charter with decent (not sky high) rate is making shorts (not the bearish case, two different things) much less attractive proposition and the share prices dynamic reflects this quite well. The end.