I was just on @AlJazeera to discuss Brazil's response to the pandemic. One of the most common questions international observers ask is: "How many deaths will it take for Bolsonaro to realize that COVID-19 poses a very serious threat to public health?" [thread 👇]
The answer is that, from an electoral point of view, it is not in Bolsonaro's interest to "own" the crisis. He knows that the coming economic collapse will be so severe that he can only remain in office if he can shift the blame on others.
He therefore opposes social distancing measures and lets governors and mayors be the bearers of bad news. Bolsonaro's strategy is morally reprehensible as it most likely leads to the unnecessary deaths of countless Brazilians, but it would be wrong to say that he lacks a strategy
In fact, Bolsonaro will point to existing social distancing measures and rising death rates as proof that these measures do not work. As Osmar Terra, one of his advisors likes to argue, social distancing measures actually *increase* death rates.
www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2020/0…
www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2020/0…
So to answer the question above: unless Bolsonaro's political calculus changes, he will continue his current strategy of denial and heap the blame on others -- irrespective of how many tens of thousands of Brazilians will die.
Even if the number of coronavirus-related deaths exceed 100,000, Bolsonaro can always say: "See? I told you social distancing measures do not work." If the number is smaller, he'll say "See? I told you it wouldn't be so bad."
In a recent piece for @ForeignPolicy, my colleague @ejamello points to several other factors that explain why Bolsonaro's coronavirus denialism may not hurt him. One of the big reasons: the opposition's fears of Bolsonaro's vice president.
foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/20/bra…
foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/20/bra…
