Nobody knows when the first ice free Arctic summer will occur, or whether it will rapidly cause ~0.5C warming.
However, knowing that 2020-2035 is entirely possible, even if one sees 2036-2049 as more likely, should anyone be stating all future warming is definitely in our hands?
However, knowing that 2020-2035 is entirely possible, even if one sees 2036-2049 as more likely, should anyone be stating all future warming is definitely in our hands?
Up to 0.5C of warming. An extraordinary thought, and a real possibility.
washingtonpost.com/energy-environ…
washingtonpost.com/energy-environ…
'the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.'
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
'the Arctic may be essentially ice-free during summer within fifteen years. That projection, however, comes with a caveat...there is room for improvement in sea-ice models...the ice may disappear even more quickly than current models suggest.' ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ic…
