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There's an update to this story about the bogus defense contractor report that claims coronavirus leaked from a Wuhan lab. The Daily Beast obtained a second satellite image, this time from Airbus, showing one of the report's key claims is false. thedailybeast.com/pentagon-contr…
One of the central claims is that there was "absolutely no traffic" by the Wuhan Institute of Virology after the alleged leak from Oct 14-19. This claim is based on mobile device data and the authors claimed there were "roadblocks" put in place to prevent traffic coming near it.
@ArmsControlWonk already did a great job showing that nearby construction was likely the source of that "roadblock" theory and that there was normal traffic around. This Airbus Defence and Space image from Oct 15 shows plenty of traffic (see the callouts in red) running nearby.
This MACE report still leaves me with a lot of questions. Here are just a few.
•How do you purport to be an open source intelligence analysis shop and miss key evidence from one of the richest sources of open source information? (Facebook) @N_Waters89 found this in minutes.
•This dossier makes an extraordinary claim about the origin of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic based on location data from *seven devices.* How and why didn't they think to check commercially available satellite data? Why did they rely almost solely on device location data?
•Why, given the weak sourcing and ambitious conclusions, did this to circulate on Capitol Hill? Who authored this product? Who ordered it? Who thought it was fit to share?
I've seen some discussion of this in the context of open source vs classified. The problem with this document isn't so much the data as the terrible analytical tradecraft. Mobile device location data and satellite imagery can reveal important things—but not with lazy analysis
Simple rule of thumb to live by: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Needless to say, the evidence in this MACE product is...not extraordinary.
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