Talked to a bunch of sharp air defense and mil nerds about the SA-15 and how something like the downing of PS752 could happen. Got a few answers. thedailybeast.com/ukraine-plane-…
One, SA-15 can plug into larger air defense networks but designed to be able to operate independently and some think it might not have been well integrated with Iran's larger network.
Two, this has happened before with Iranian SA-15s. NYT reported on a 2007 incident in which an SA-15 crew near Natanz fired at a civilian airliner and missed. They foolishly believed it was an Israeli airliner trying to look like a commercial jet nytimes.com/2012/10/03/wor…
Most chilling line from the classified assessment the NYT quoted back in 2012: “misidentification of aircraft will continue.”
Which leads to a third factor: context and people. Reason the Iranian SA-15 crew were jumpy in that 2007 incident was that it was a period of high tension over Iran's nuclear program. Obviously, night in question was tense. Maybe the tenses in U.S.-Iran relationship since the 80s
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I should add: as insane as it would be to mistake a large, relatively slow moving and climbing aircraft for an incoming threat, there are examples of astounding mistakes. Mike Kofman of CNA reminded me of the Syrian shoot down of a Russian spy plane 
