Our @LLopezGonzalez will be live-tweeting tonight's meeting with @DrZweliMkhize & #Covid19SA modellers. What does the future hold for #CoronavirusInSA? Stay tuned. Mkhize: There are a lot of modellers out there. Some do it academically, some we engage.
Mkhize: The NDOH has been working with modellers to refine their models. Initial models were largely based on how outbreaks behaved in other countries. #Covid19SA #CoronavirusInSA
Mkhize starts by presenting a global picture of the wide-ranging case fatality rate globally 
Mkhize: "We started the same as the UK. When the blue line trends lower, is when the lockdown... started. There is no reason to believe that we would have deviated from that trajectory had we not intervened." #Covid19SA
Mkhize: "What we realise is that the curve was going to be higher... we needed time to improve capacity - more doctors, more ICU beds. We needed to have a sense of what the needs would be when the situation arose." #Covid19SA
Here's a snapshot of how South Africa responded to #Covid_19 by Health Minister Zweli Mkhize #CoronavirusInSA
The focus of the country's #Covid19SA is now focused on hot spots, Mkhize. He explains that the country will now focus on stages 4, 5, 6 and 7 in this graph.
Deaths are increasing. "We're busy analysing why some death rates don't mimick the case numbers," Mkhize says. #CoronavirusInSA #Covid19SA
Mkhize notes that early in the #Covid19SA cases rose sharply after which, increases in cases stabilised. "That's what we're looking for - not that there's no new cases" but that they're not rising quickly, he says. #CoronavirusInSA
Mkhize: "There are still some delays in testing because of delays in diagnostic kits globally but the numbers are much higher than we've ever done in the past." #Covid19SA
This case positivity chart, Mkhize says, shows a lack of uniformity in the spread of the virus nationally. #CoronaVirusSA
#Covid19SA contract tracing at a glance: "Most of the provinces have managed to get it as close as possible. We still have challenges in some provinces" he references the Western and Eastern Capes. #CoronaVirusSA
As the country moves to ease the #LockdownSA the WHO has set the following criteria for easing #coronavirus lockdowns, Mkhize explains. #Covid19SA There are still gaps in healthcare capacity here in South Africa in some provinces, he says.
Nowhere in the country has met all of these WHO criteria for lifting or easing a lockdown. #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
Mkhize presents more data on the regional differences in #Covid19SA with this picture of the 52 districts. "There are areas with no cases..." #CoronaVirusSA
Coastal provinces except for Gauteng remain mostly affected. This map graphs the above info for all 52 health districts in the country. #CoronaVirusSA #Covid19SA
"The Western Cape may be an early indication of how the epidemic will progress in other provinces over time," Mkhize warns. #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
Harry Moultrie explains that modelling has been undertaken by three expert teams including those from UCT and Wits to build what they believe is a credible model for national, provincial #Covid19SA projections.
The organisations involved are Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA); South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), and Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO). #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
Julliet Pulliam: We've been working on developing models over the last 6 weeks are a representation of the outbreak within South Africa. These are models so there are a number of uncertainties. Projections are updated weekly.
Models are tools to help you think about the future, they don't tell you the future, Pulliam says. #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
Pulliam: What don't the models account for? People changing behaviour as they did in Ebola to prevent infections. Projections will improve with new data including hospital use and how long #Covid19SA patients spend in hospital. These numbers are only really starting to emerge.
Pulliam: What don't the models account for? People changing behaviour as they did in Ebola to prevent infections. Projections will improve with new data including hospital use and how long #Covid19SA patients spend in hospital. These numbers are only really starting to emerge.
Gesine Meyer-Rath: Who has used the #Covid19SA modelling? Take a look. #CoronaVirusSA Modelling is being used to cost expenditure on the outbreak
Meyer-Rath: Groups are working across departments national and provincial as well as projects, for instance, those looking to increase the number of ventilators in South Africa #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
The two main models modelled both the epidemiological and financial costs of the outbreak. The epidemiological in particular looked at, for instance, what types of cases we might see and how patients would be treated - Sheetal Silal #Covid19SA
Silal: We will present two scenarios, one optimistic, one more pessimistic. These projections are being updated weekly.
Silal: We assume that regional differences like those in the Western Cape will reduce and that it will eventually be similar across the nine provinces, she explains. By end of May, the model projects 30 000 infections but this could vary widely either up or down. #Covid19SA
By the end of May, we'd expect about 2000 hospital beds in use up to about 4000. ICU beds would be about 500 ICU beds in use on average, Silal says. #Covid19SA
3300 ICU beds are available nationally roughly. #CoronaVirusSA
3300 ICU beds are available nationally roughly. #CoronaVirusSA
In the longterm, there is a lot of uncertainty about how this new epidemic will play up. Longterm projections are likely to change but the lockdown is expected to have pushed the peak of the epidemic back and these peaks are lower, Silal says. #Covid19SA
Optimistic models predict ICU bed capacity could be stretched as early as June, Silal says. When this happens, patients will be moved to non-ICU beds so general hospital bed availability may also be stretched early in the outbreak relatively, Silal says.
Models predict provinces will progressive somewhat differently in the next six months. The Eastern Cape may be following the pessimistic or red trajectory. The opposite seems to be happening in the Free State and cases there may be lower than expected. #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
KZN and Gauteng: Short term estimates indicate that both provinces are following the optimistic blue trajectory as do KZN and Gauteng: Short term estimates indicate that both provinces are following the optimistic blue trajectory as do Limpopo, North West, N. Cape & Mpumalanga
But ICU bed capacity in all of these provinces above are likely to be stretched. The peak in #Covid19SA is expected in July or August, depending on post-lockdown measures and behaviour. #CoronaVirusSA
Provinces are likely to peak at different times. #CoronaVirusSA ICU capacities are likely to be exceeded. Additional orders should be placed now for equipment for instance. Projections are updated weekly and will have additional data post #LockdownSA to improve models, Silal says
These models are changing all the time, Silal cautions.
Zaid Kimmie: We need more granular detail to say what areas are at the greatest risk of increased cases. Right now, information is also being processed for South Africa's more than 300 wards. #Covid19SA #CoronaVirusSA
Kimmie: We don't yet know enough to catch these very small, area or facility-specific outbreaks. But what we do have is something able to generate some level of prediction at smaller scales to help us gauge how well other, larger or more national models are working. #Covid19SA
"Under almost all scenarios hospital & ICU capacity will be exceeded though timing and extent is uncertain. Requires a flexible approach to resource acquisition with initial purchases now and additional orders as more information becomes available." #Covid19SA #CoronavirusInSA
South Africa's #Covid19SA Models will be regularly released publically going forward. They have already been reviewed by a large number of groups, says Harry Moultrie. "This is part of democracy. We look forward to constructive engagement." #CoronavirusInSA
