Thread by @bradj_TX

The City of Austin/Travis County 2020 homeless population survey is out: austinecho.org/wp-content/upl…

For context, this comes after the 2019 decisions by city council to rescind its camping/lying ban in July, then reinstated some restrictions in October. #ATX
thetexan.news/austin-city-co…

The new survey shows an 11% increase in 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.

Additionally, there was a 45% increase in 𝑢𝑛𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 homeless individuals and a 20% decrease in the 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 count. #ATX

The total homeless & unsheltered populations have each increased of late -- total, since 2017 and unsheltered, since 2014.

Meanwhile, the sheltered population has almost continuously declined since 2016. #ATX

As the Travis County pop. has skyrocketed since 2011, the homeless count per capita has increased modestly since 2017.

The 2nd graphic is mine comparing homeless pop. as a % of total population & the homeless pop. increase as a share of year-to-year population increase. #ATX

Unsurprisingly, the highest concentration of unsheltered homeless is in district 9, represented by @kathietovo, as it comprises much of downtown.

The other tables show unsheltered homeless population by council district and municipality. #ATX

Age demographic percentages of unsheltered homeless largely stayed the same, with "Over 24" and "18 to 24" increased slightly, and "Under 18" decreased slightly. #ATX

Veteran vs Non-Veteran ratio remained almost unchanged as well. #ATX

Racial demographics of unsheltered homeless did not really change from 2019 to 2020.

Due to the convoluted methods of data collection on race/ethnicity, it's difficult to compare the report w/ population percentages, but the latest Census estimates follow for reference. #ATX

On gender, males are overrepresented and females underrepresented compared with the total population. #ATX

Data on unsheltered homeless relating to "Location of 1st Homelessness" is mostly unchanged. This only partially answers the Q of "Are people moving to ATX to be homeless?"

But as a % of 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 homeless, most are from #ATX, at least so far as this report classifies it.

As one of its conclusions, the city points to rising rent and stagnant wages.

But in its analysis, it compares a 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 rent w/ a 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 wage. A median wage in #ATX is $55,216 and the listed median rent would make up 27% of it.

I think "minimum rent" is a typo in this section and should be "median" because there are many examples of places available for less than $1,220/month: apartments.com/austin-tx/unde…

This doesn't mean #ATX is not inordinately expensive, but comparing median rent w/ a minimum earner is incongruous.

The report states that minimum-tier properties increased 6.2% and middle-tier properties increased 4.8% in cost.

That said, a minimum wage earner working 40/week would earn $1,160 (before taxes). It is next to impossible to find living in #ATX at 1/3 of that wage (1/3 of income on rent is generally the rule of thumb).

Austin is a costly city, and that cost certainly poses a problem.

The report provides no data on the mental illness or drug abuse side of things. Based on Austin Echo's proportion of statewide homeless w/serious mental illness or drug abuse, 927 of #ATX's 2020 homeless population would suffer from these.

Note: this is not an exact number but the best estimate I can come up with.
austinecho.org/about-echo/hom…

Conclusion:

Since the city's changes in its camping/lying policies, #ATX has seen an increase in the raw number of homeless, but the proportion of homeless to total population is not an outlier of the recent trend, though.

However, a drastically higher percentage increase of #ATX unsheltered homeless from recent years has occurred & a decrease of those sheltered has occurred.

Correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but an incentive to leave shelters and live on the street was prominent.