Thread by @Usherwood

So, lots of new Brexit texts flying around this week.

What to make it all?

1/

Today we had the UK's 'approach' on implementing the Northern Irish Protocol: gov.uk/government/new…

Yesterday came the drafts for EU-UK agreements under the Future Relationship: gov.uk/government/pub…

Also, the new tariff regime: gov.uk/government/new…

2/

(note the draft texts didn't get a press release, so HMG not going out of their way to get people to notice them, or even find them)

3/

Any way, the texts matter as assertion of several things:

- UK has detailed ideas of what it wants
- UK still moving on Brexit despite COVID-19
- Ending EU membership is fundamentally linked with new global opportunities (we could stick the immigration bill in too here)

4/

But the primary audience for all these documents is essentially a domestic one

5/

The implementation approach today does set out a clear step forward, but without the detail that would be needed to make the Protocol work in practice

6/

The draft Future Relationship texts were shared with the Commission well over a month ago, but the UK wouldn't let them be shared for discussion w/in EU until now

Again, much ambition, but v.little attempt to close gaps with EU positions

7/

The tariffs are the least problematic in this regard, but clearly will depend on how Future Relationship talks pan out, so somewhat moot right now

8/

Again, these documents do represent an advance on the previous absence, but they still don't obviously match up with the UK rhetoric of a deal by the end of 2020

9/

We've covered this many times before, but once more there is a tension between getting Brexit done and getting it done right

These documents are more about the latter - an expression of preferences about what the UK-EU relationship should be - than the former

10/

Indeed, by publishing the texts, it becomes harder to walk across to any compromise positions that might be required to hit the current schedule.

Tetchy letters by chief negotiators (made public) probably don't help either

11/

As our #tradetwitter colleagues might note, much of this is theatre, but it's theatre on a silly-short timeline, so the scope for a bit of a break to clear the air is v.limited

12/

Yes, the UK is engaging, but not in a way that really fits its nominal objective

If we assume everyone knows what they're doing (and I think we should), then either UK wants something else/less, or it needs to ramp up contingency planning

13/

In sum:

A step forward, but on what may well be a much longer journey than expected

/end

PS - this week's reactions in EU might make one wonder whether this would have been easier if people didn't question your motives or sincerity.

Low trust is adding significant drag on all of this.