Due to COVID-19, there is a real chance that 2019 will be the year in which global CO2 emissions peaked.
If trends in GDP growth and decarbonization had continued emissions would have peaked around 2024. Now there is a real chance they won't ever return to 2019 levels. 1/3
If trends in GDP growth and decarbonization had continued emissions would have peaked around 2024. Now there is a real chance they won't ever return to 2019 levels. 1/3
This simple initial analysis uses 10-year trends in GDP and CO2/GDP and projects them forwards. It also uses the 2020 and 2021 IMF COVID-19 base case and longer outbreak GDP numbers to get a 4.9% and 7.8% reduction in 2020 emissions, similar to other estimates. 2/3
Of course, there is a real chance that GDP growth will be more rapid in the years after 2021 than historical rates that I'm assuming as economies recover, so its still possible we could see 2023 or 2024 emissions be above 2019 levels. Its too early to know for sure! 3/3
Note that this analysis only looks at CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Changes in land use emissions are hard to predict, but have been relatively flat in recent years. carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa… 4/3
Also, the original graph has the axis mislabeled, as I changed the units from MtCO2 to GtCO2 and forgot to update it. Here is the correct version: 5/3
