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The decarbonization of the global economy has sped up over the past 9 years, after pausing during much of the 2000s (when countries – led by China – invested heavily in coal). If this trend continues we soon reach point where the economy is decarbonizing faster than its growing.
(Looks like $USD caused formatting issues in the y-axis; here is a fixed version):
Note there are some differences between results using GDP in MER vs PPP units. @Peters_Glen has a good post on this from a few years back: cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Good @WSJ article by @greg_ip featuring my speculation that theres a real chance global CO2 emissions peaked in 2019. But there are some huge caveats to this projection that we should keep in mind; I'd personally only give it close to even odds! wsj.com/articles/coron… 1/8
First, my analysis assumes that in a world without COVID-19 global emissions would have peaked around 2024, and that the economic shock from COVID-19 will result in a large enough reduction in GDP (relative to a COVID-free world) that emissions will remain below 2019 levels. 2/8
This is based on assuming that both the average GDP growth of the past decade (2010-2019) and rate of decarbonization (CO2 per GDP) continue over the next five years. This is a big IF! The rate of decarbonization over the last decade has been pretty linear. BUT... 3/8
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
The natural world is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and generally lacks the adaptive capacity of human systems. In a new piece @LaurenRAnders1 and I explore how we might to help nature adapt to the warming we cannot manage to mitigate: thebreakthrough.org/issues/conserv… 1/4
It is important to emphasize that the best way to prevent damages from climate change is to reduce emissions. However, some warming is inevitable, and it is worth planning for how to respond to cases where the international community does not get its act together 2/4
Non-human nature is sharply limited in its capacity to adapt to climate change, and even the best-case mitigation scenarios will put massive pressure on ecosystems. In a 2C world, a full 25 percent of species are at risk of regional extirpation (double that in a 4.5C world). 3/4
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Due to COVID-19, there is a real chance that 2019 will be the year in which global CO2 emissions peaked.

If trends in GDP growth and decarbonization had continued emissions would have peaked around 2024. Now there is a real chance they won't ever return to 2019 levels. 1/3
This simple initial analysis uses 10-year trends in GDP and CO2/GDP and projects them forwards. It also uses the 2020 and 2021 IMF COVID-19 base case and longer outbreak GDP numbers to get a 4.9% and 7.8% reduction in 2020 emissions, similar to other estimates. 2/3
Of course, there is a real chance that GDP growth will be more rapid in the years after 2021 than historical rates that I'm assuming as economies recover, so its still possible we could see 2023 or 2024 emissions be above 2019 levels. Its too early to know for sure! 3/3
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