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This is something I mentioned at the time we shut down, but I do wish the argument had been "we know very little about this, except that it has wreaked havoc with some large regions" and not "listen to science."Because we really didn't know much. 1/

bgr.com/2020/05/20/cor…
Like remember when people were leaving packages on their front doorstep for three days because we were terrified that the postman might have COVID-19 on his fingertips? Oops. 2/
Look, I think we mostly made the right choices given the facts and data we had, but we made the right choices in the face of UNCERTAINTY, not an abundance of knowledge. I think part of why people are having trouble updating priors right now is because of how this was sold. 3/
If you have people convinced that this is all rock solid science, it's really much more difficult to come around and say "well, no a lot of that was quite wrong." 4/4
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Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
So my Poli Sci 1100 class from Fall '19 will remember -- or should! -- me saying that I thought the arg. in the Title VII cases would have significant pull with the conservative justices. I think it is worth expanding upon here so people understand exactly where this comes from.
I think there are 3 points I emphasized in class that seem relevant here. First off: It is genuinely surprising CJ Roberts joined the majority, given his hostile stance at oral argument. It's a reminder that oral arguments aren't always the best signal. But more importantly 2/
It isn't clear that Roberts necessarily agrees. Recall, the one real power of the Chief is that he is automatically the most senior justice, and the most senior justice in the majority assigns the cases. Had he not joined the majority, Ginsburg would have assigned. 3/
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Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
Long-ish thread here. This @ezraklein piece is interesting, if only because of what it tells us about how the media is biased. This bias isn't the aggressively anti-conservative bias of right-wing fever dreams, and isn't ideological as such. 1/

vox.com/2020/6/10/2128…
I'll spare you the entire article, but we can focus on Klein's three categories: Consensus, legitimate controversy, and deviant. He places BLM in the first category, prison abolition in the second, and Cotton's op-ed in the third. 2/
Which is . . . strange? If we use public polling as a gauge, BLM could be placed in the "consensus" category, but it is a pretty recent development that may or may not regress to what has been more of a "legitimate controversy" mean. nytimes.com/interactive/20… 3/
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Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
Oh FFS. 1/
Here's the 7-day rolling average of new cases in Texas. Looks pretty bad! 2/
BUT, here's the 7-day rolling average of tests in Texas. 3/
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