Thread by @THE_47th

The situation inside regime controlled areas in Syria is changing significantly. Over the lst 2mnths, and given the extra time I have had due 2 self isolation: I hv been in daily contact with Syrians in Damascus, Homs, Latakia & elsewhere. The things I hear changed my thinking.

Ever since Russia fully intervened in Syria in 2015 tipping the balance in fav of the regime, my thinking was as follows: Alas, no matter what happens, and unless Assad accidentally dies, he was the only strong man in Syria. He will not be given up until a stronger man is found.

Regional players may disagree on how they want Syria to play out, but they all want one thing: a strong man.

- Israel would not accept someone who can’t control Syria.

- Turkey will not take decentralization and a Kurdish canton.

- AL/GCC won’t be happy with a weak gov or elections that reset/change govts every 4 years.

- USA will not accept a vacuum that will continue to attract terrorists and so on.

So more or less: I was living with the reality that Assad is staying for a while and in peace.. knowing that there is not a single strong man alternative to him inside Syria. But the situation inside Syria and what loyalists have been saying have changed my mind. I’ll explain.

Growing up in Syria, I went to one of the 4 private schools in all of Syria. Given that two of these schools were either in French or in Aleppo, my school had 50% of all regime and gov children. You name it: son of head of Mukhabarat, Mukhabarat Jaweyyeh, Min of Interior…etc

In addition the kids of the same business network that Assad the father created and later inherited to his son: kids of the top industrial, service and manufacturers in Syria.

All of them, ALL of them bar non- were super excited about Bashar coming to power at first.

Once the “he is young and he will change” dream wore off, those same people uysed to curse Bashar in front of me in private. “He is nothing like his father", "he is an idiot”, “his own father didn’t want him” , or “he lost Lebanon” were the usual arguments.

fast forward to 2011. The same people (loyalists in private, public and gov) rallied behind the leadership. At times of war, you put away your differences and dirty laundry and rally behind the leadership.

Since the regime recaptured Homs, Deraa, Damascus and its surroundings, Aleppo, and much of the population centers in Syria, and since ISIS as more or less defeated (not by Assad ofc), Syrians of all backgrounds agree: the war is over. The threat is over.

As the threat is gone and the dust settled. Heartland Assad is grappling with a few realities:

- The Syrian pount has falled by %3,600 since 2011.

- Salaries barely went up 50% since 2011.

- Almost 80-90% of Syria are living on under $2 a day.

- Every house lost a loved one.

The loyalists I and my friends talk to have been extremely angry with Assad himself, a whole lot more anger than they had pre-2011. As Pre 2011, they didn’t like his management style.Today, they are hungry and their kids are hungry.

While they are hungry, the president that they defended is living in riches and lavishly enriching his inner circle, it is all out there to be seen: it is all on instagram.

This anger, went from behind closed doors, to overt criticism of the government online. And not only from the public.. You have:

1. members of Parliament criticizing the gov openly facebook.com/nabil.saleh.37…

2. Regime Soldiers facebook.com/aqllysy/posts/…

3. e.g. Regime businessmen/cronies facebook.com/aead.hasan.31/…

4. e.g. 4th Division Commander who was jailed for speaking up facebook.com/amjadhbadran/p…

5. Even Rami Makhouf (Assad's own cousin/ ex partner & bff) facebook.com/RamiMakhloufSY…

And these are just a few examples..

I can go on & on, including countless posts of loyalists that are fighting one another: blaming Russia (saying that Russia can send in waepon shipments 2 stoke the war but can’t send in food to feed the hungry?), other blaming Iran, some r pro Rami, others miss Rifaat Assad..etc

The lid is off. Previously, these conversations were in private, now that criticism is reaching Assad himself from the people he trusted the most- his life insurance policy: the loyalists.

Loyalists are now hungry.

When your kids are hungry, you don’t think of strong men, you don’t think of what Russia wants, you don’t worry about geopolitics. You blame the person who is in charge. And I see it happening on daily bases from people way up in the regime all the way to the average loyalist.

In other words: Assad’s biggest risk is no longer what Putin wants, or what Iran wants or what regional powers are scheming. It is his own people, sitting in a pressure cooker.

Assad was already struggling to balance between what Russia wants and what Iran wants..but now a whole new beast is thrown in the mix, and that one is not easily pleased.

The war shadow is gone, the threat is gone, the chickens are v angry and are coming home to roost.

Over.

Today the Syrian pounds crossed 2000 barrier (1$ is now = 2000 pounds).

That's a 4000% devaluation since the war started.

This is a new dangerous chapter in Syria.

ft.com/content/671ad3…