What a time to be alive. The Iranians have to act rationally bcz the U.S is the one that’s not rational now.
The Iranians have maintained dialogue with friends and foes, including reaching out to Gulf states, and the U.S. is now the disrupter.
The Iranians have maintained dialogue with friends and foes, including reaching out to Gulf states, and the U.S. is now the disrupter.
GCC states used to lobby the US gov to take a tion against Iran, they are now sending emissaries to try to calm things with Iran.
Khamenei went from bragging that the U.S won’t dare pick a fight with Iran (see below), to not knowing how to react without getting slapped with god knows what.
The IR regime is in a tough spot. They HAVE 2 retaliate, but they are scared as hell..Americans have been irrational lately.
They r not suicidal, but not retaliating will do massive damage, esp after investing so much in their deterrence tools (alliances, terror, proxies…etc).
They r not suicidal, but not retaliating will do massive damage, esp after investing so much in their deterrence tools (alliances, terror, proxies…etc).
I think the Iranians will react in two ways:
1- A theatrical big attack that won’t do much harm (like they & Hizb did in Israel)
2- Series of terror attacks in West Asia that can be denied..attacks that aim at changing U.S public opinion & help defeat Trump in Nov 2020...
1- A theatrical big attack that won’t do much harm (like they & Hizb did in Israel)
2- Series of terror attacks in West Asia that can be denied..attacks that aim at changing U.S public opinion & help defeat Trump in Nov 2020...
On retaliation #1,
This can be done like before: Big bang no damage, fire rockets at an empty base.. detonate evacuated US POIs...etc.
For instance, remember when Hizb attacked a jeep driven by a mannequin and Israel acted out a fake med evac?
nytimes.com/2019/09/01/wor…
This can be done like before: Big bang no damage, fire rockets at an empty base.. detonate evacuated US POIs...etc.
For instance, remember when Hizb attacked a jeep driven by a mannequin and Israel acted out a fake med evac?
nytimes.com/2019/09/01/wor…
In May 2018, Israel downed an Iranian drone & killed its IRGC operators in a mil Airport in #Homs Syria. Iran promised massive retaliation, ppl thought WWIII was about to start...and for the first time in the Islamic republics history, it fired a barrage of rockets at Israel...
Ofc, a few hours after the"retaliation" we found out that there was a lot of calculation behind that Iranian retaliation on Israel. It purposely fired rockets on a site that wold cause no human casualties. (see my tweet from may 2018)
Ofc..this is all speculation, and no one knows what could happen
But with the above in mind, based on recent Iranian actions and fearing an even bigger U.S response, I don’t think the Iranians will have a direct military attack on U.S military. they will put on a theatrical attk
But with the above in mind, based on recent Iranian actions and fearing an even bigger U.S response, I don’t think the Iranians will have a direct military attack on U.S military. they will put on a theatrical attk
However, in the long term, over the next 10mnths, Iran will use proxies/terror attcks 2 sway public opinion agnst Trump.
Believe it or not, Iran (even till yesterday) didn’t walk away from the JCPOA thus leaving room 4 possible admin change next year & going back to 2015 days
Believe it or not, Iran (even till yesterday) didn’t walk away from the JCPOA thus leaving room 4 possible admin change next year & going back to 2015 days
Last time the resistance threatened of WW3
Pentagon officials told Jake Tapper (below) exactly what I heard from my source in May 2018 Iran/Israel incident: Iran went out of its way to avoid casualties. (see my thread from yesterday before the Iran attack on the Iraqi base).
