It is completely & absolutely insane that this video was censored by YouTube. The guy is an optimist, & I am a pessimist, but I learned some things & he makes a good, hopeful case that there may be other forms of immunity at work & we've over the hump. Why the censorship?!
There are weird things going on with the case counts right now. There could be multiple explanations, & I have my own thoughts on what's happening & my problems with the optimistic case, but censoring this only gives fuel to the false idea that lockdowns == doomsday cult.
My own suspicion is that summer + the fact that in many places that are reopening larger seeder sites (restaurants, bars, churches, office buildings) are just now coming online this week + lag in testing/hospitalizations/deaths explains the lack of fresh increases.
But by all means, let's hear alternate medical explanations involving other types of immunity that doesn't leave a trace in a serology test. I am here for any science-based, non-financially-motivated argument that we are done with this thing.
FWIW I now also think the virus probably has a very low K value, which means that only a small subset of infections are contagious. Intuitively to me, this goes a long way toward explaining how patchy the outbreaks are. The transmission chains are easily broken by...
...NPIs like distancing & mask usage, & probably even weather. If this virus has a low K & is heat/humidity sensitive, then I'd expect to see only small random clusters crop up but overall case counts go down as long as the weather cooperates. And that seems to be happening.
Think about it: everyone who's exposed to enough of it from a spreader gets it (it's novel & highly transmissible), but only like 10% of those people who get it can actually become spreaders themselves. The rest just get it & don't spread it.
If that's the case, then reducing the number of people the average spreader can expose to it in the course of a day will dramatically cut the case count. The math just clicks. You can do that via quarantines or by covering everyone's face holes. Or, you can suppress the avg...
...spreader's effectiveness (i.e. lowering R) via the weather. Any combo of those things probably works.
