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Ooops. Only out by a factor of two... A short 60 billion bucks!

This is quite amazing...

Surely, they had someone that did a quick back of the envelope check? "Hey guys, that number looks a tad high"... 🤔

Surely?

abc.net.au/news/2020-05-2…
Not sure why the ABC is blaming businesses here for making a mistake. You would think there would be a variety of checks & balances in place...

I would put blame on the government for not running the numbers more carefully. Perhaps they should employee a few data scientists?
When I heard the 6.5 million people on JobKeeper, I even did a quick scratch of the head. It must imply a pretty devastating unemployment rate, but move on, I have emissions to estimate.

Doesn't the government have an idea on how many people are employed & might need help?
When people make a mistake on their CenterLink form, I guess they can say they were only out 10% or 50 bucks...
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD on Carbon Budgets

The 'Carbon Budget' is the cumulative CO₂ emissions from one point in time to another given a temperature limit, such as exceeding 1.5°C, reaching net-zero (~peak temperature), or to (say) 2100 for a 1.5°C scenario.

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
2. The #IPCC #SR15 had different categories of scenarios.

The 'Below 1.5°C' scenarios never exceeded 1.5°C (no 'exceed' budget), but they all reach net-zero CO₂ emissions leading to a 'net-zero' or 'peak' budget (as peak cumulative CO₂ occurs at net-zero CO₂ emissions).
3. Most 1.5°C scenarios exceed 1.5°C, reach a peak temperature (over 1.5°C), & then decline back below 1.5°C (peak & decline scenarios).

How to define the budget? A net-zero budget is a clear definition, but corresponds to ~peak temperature (eg 1.7°C) & varies a factor of two!
Read 9 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
GDP growth is a decent, but not perfect, proxy for CO₂ emissions growth.

If the IMF GDP growth of –3% & –6% align with Le Quéré et al CO₂ emissions growth of –4.2% & 7.5%, then CO₂/GDP would decline –1.2% & –1.5%. Much lower than the 10 year average.

nature.com/articles/s4155…
2. There is not much relationship between GDP growth & CO₂/growth, but during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/2009 there was not much of a decline in CO₂/GDP (this is just one data point, see previous tweet).
3. Going back further in time. During the oil crises (~1975, ~1980) & collapse of the former Soviet (~1992), if anything, CO₂/GDP went down.

Are other crises an analogue for COVID19? Perhaps not, as the service sectors are hit the hardest (low CO₂/GDP).

Check back in 2021...
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"The result remains the gold standard for policy: global warming potential (GWP), which compares the impact of different greenhouse gases on climate." @KHayhoe @Wuebbles

🤔

That statement pulled me up...

1/
nature.com/articles/d4158…
I have no doubt about the statement before "When they argued that it was too difficult [to compare GHGs in a single metric], Houghton insisted that they must, because they were the best people in the world to do this."

2/
Don Wuebbles was instrumental in the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) & the GWP uses essentially the same concepts.

Houghton pushed as there was a need to compare GHGs for policy, though, I am not sure scientists were so keen on the GWP at the time, nor the years later.

3/
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