1) After some adjustments, $TNK did roughly $100m FCF in Q4/2019, $150m FCF in Q1/2020 and has forward guidance of $200m FCF in Q2. That’s roughly $450m in 9 mos and market cap is $525m today.
2) They locked in 20% charter coverage for next year at solid rates to protect the downside. LTV is in 40’s now and 30’s after Q2. They intend to buy in some expensive leases. No one knows what happens starting tomorrow and we can debate it forever, but TNK just created big value
3) Why is everyone so short-term focused on rates comping negative WoW instead of huge positives YoY? They just earned their market cap and the stock is barely up. It was at a discount to NAV even before this process started and now NAV nearly doubled.
4) Despite all the doom-mongering, rates are at solid levels and summers are seasonally weak. TNK keeps printing money, just at a slower pace than April charters.
5) This all seems quite stupid that someone would buy in $20’s and sell in teens. That’s not how you make money. You buy a strong trend and ignore the noise. When the noise gets louder, you go on vacation. That’s what I’ve done...
