Quick thread 1) All cyclical bull market recoveries are the same. They start with true hatred as everyone has lost fortunes. After share prices have bottomed, plugged-in guys (like myself) buy the bottom and while getting ridiculed and mocked. We also get the first uptick...
2) All my friends felt sorry for me and told me I was wrong. “Kuppy, don’t you know shipping sucks. “They’re all crooks” Then share prices doubled and they stopped having opinions to me. Yet, no only insiders and a few brave souls saw the recovery and were engaged...
3) 2nd or 3rd inning is where “thought leaders” (not 23 year olds on Linked In who are self-proclaimed “thought leaders” but actual grey haired guys with amazing track records and utmost industry respect) start buying and publicly state the obvious case....
4) If Peter Lynch can own shipping, any fund manager can. You don’t have the same career risk. You don’t worry that your investment committee cracks jokes about Greek crooks and laughs. Instead, some junior analyst is told to learn shipping. Peter Lynch just cleansed things....
5) Then a few other VERY well respected managers show up with shipping in their 13-F. Suddenly, it’s safe to own shipping. Then the pile-in happens....
6) We are now at the inflection point where a niche sector on twitter and owned by a few focused hedge funds goes mainstream and fund flows push shares up rapidly. Peter Lynch is a damn smart guy. Everyone copies him.
7) 2020 will be the year that prices finally recognize what we all already know.
