Thread) P1-You all have gone crazy!! Everyone here on fintwit is a virologist now. I have never seen such extreme bearishness—not even the lows in 2018 when I pounded the table to buy stuff right before a massive 14 month rally. Aren’t you all self-proclaimed contrarians..??
P2-IWN just gave back 5 years of gains. It’s down 40% in a month!! These companies were “cheap” to begin with. Discount rate to use in financial models is low single digits, so year 5 matters a lot more than in the past. 2 of the next 20 quarters will suck, that’s only 10%.
P3-Sure, some companies won’t make it. Be more selective than normal (low leverage, no near-term maturities, plenty of liquidity) but if you can’t find bargains today or you’re panic selling down here, you might as well find a different career.
P4-On feb 24 I warned people to take some off to “be safe” adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/02/24/ext…
P5-Now is the time to be buying! That doesn’t mean we cannot go 10% or 20% lower. No one knows where we bottom and you 100% will not get the low tick. However, you don’t need the low tick. Lots of low leverage companies trade for less than 5x TTM FCF.
P6- Buy here, turn off your screens for 2 months, stop following the hourly COVID updates, feel comforable you got great bargains and stop freaking out. They are gonna print so much money that Venezuela blushes. Remember, VZ crashed upwards when their economy collapsed. EOM
