Thread by @fascinatorfun

Sage coronavirus expert: We’ve had an epidemic that to some degree could have been avoided | Prospect Magazine

Nobel prize winner, Sir Paul Nurse, on Sage, playing catch-up up, herd immunity, uncertainty, shortages still to be overcome and opening schools prospectmagazine.co.uk/science-and-te…

One of the greatest challenges of the Covid pandemic is the total uncertainty, the fact that you have to make tough decisions despite scientific uncertainty.

Communication of complex science in a time of uncertainty takes transparency, including about mistakes, some of which are inevitable.

There is insufficient transparency and honesty, probably driven by fear. Which is a shame as it is a root to better decision making and trust.

Opacity does not help Sage. It has two formal meetings a week and ad hoc meetings on the side. 40 or 50 people, 10 outside Gov and the rest civil servants from different departments, who are fed information by 200 people who sit on sub groups..

There is a gap between science & policy that needs to be filled. It is not helpful to attend just some of the meetings because you are trying to play catch up with large quantities of complex information.

And mistakes were made that made our epidemic in a pandemic worse.

The crucial weeks were the last in January and all of February where Germany/S Korea (amongst others) were bold and courageous whereas we were slow and that cost lives.

He has no recollection that herd immunity as a strategy or policy being discussed at Sage, nor would he argue for it as a policy, one of accepting that there would be a lot of illness and death to protect the rest.

It is an unacceptable way to think about public health.

Without a vaccine we will have to live with Covid for years. And even with a vaccine there are shortages of critical delivery mechanisms like syringes and glass for glass vials.

Not to mention the geopolitical difficulties leading to something akin to vaccine nationalism.