@DanielSpiro1 I guess that would be the case. There is an uncertainty issue though. Even for yearly, a ratio of CO2/GDP is quite uncertain, particularly in some countries. Hard to know whether variations of say 1-2% each year (in CO2/GDP) are real or random uncertainties.
@DanielSpiro1 Have to be careful not to over interpret.
The longer term trends also have a lot of inertia. One problem with using CO2/GDP projections is the legacy of what happened at the start of the trend period. This year we will no longer have the legacy of the GFC in 10 year trends!
The longer term trends also have a lot of inertia. One problem with using CO2/GDP projections is the legacy of what happened at the start of the trend period. This year we will no longer have the legacy of the GFC in 10 year trends!
@DanielSpiro1 I guess this is backing up your point though. Short time scales, one would expect a closer link, like in COVID. Longer term, if there is a transition, it will break the trend.
