Your daily reminder that for NY to hit 30K ICUs at Apex, the daily ICU count needed to rise by 2,000 in the 14 days leading up to it. But it rose by about 350 a day yet Cuomo kept yelling about 30K-40K vents. After a week of this lower rise, he said Apex will land weeks later. Ok
After rising only a fraction of the ICUs needed to put you at 30K - 40K ICUs at Apex, the fix should have been to notice that something is off with the model. Instead, Apex was moved from April 6-13 to “end of April.” Makes no sense.
The issue is not who was wrong early/mid-March. The issue is that since late March, there are plenty of data points showing where things were off, yet Cuomo keeps operating off of the old data. For example, in the third week of March, he thought that 15% cases
.@Ami_Magazine will need hospitalization (and up to a fifth of those need the ICU). Antibodeis tests confirm that the hospital rate is much lower (because there are way more cases than thought). Indeed last week the CDC placed the hospital rate in the 2.5% range of cases
On March 23, Cuomo said Apex will be in 14-21 days (April 6-13) and there will be 30K - 40K in the ICU.
Mid-point is April 9-10 and 35K ICUs.
Every day that the Black column rose the slow way it did, you should have known that something is way off with the Red assumption. No?
Mid-point is April 9-10 and 35K ICUs.
Every day that the Black column rose the slow way it did, you should have known that something is way off with the Red assumption. No?
See my MARCH 25th tweets doing the raw math regarding Cuomo’s 30K-40K expectation. I list (second screen grab) how many new Covid cases we would need per day to hit that number and I list (third grab) by how much the actual cases rose in the days pre-March 25 to show the gap.
Why does all this, from 2 months ago, matter now? Simple. Cuomo still thinks we did not hit these clown ICU assumptions due to the lockdowns and not in large part because the Hosptial/ICU assumptions were flawed! His CURRENT lockdown policies R still rooted in the OLD GARBAGE!
3/7/20 Gestetner (that’s me) says “I am preparing for the outbreak... attending less large crowd events.”
3/8/20 Fauci says healthy people can go cruising.
3/23-26/20 Cuomo says he’ll need 30K+ ICUs within weeks.
3/25/20 Gestetner tweets the math showing how improbable it is.
3/8/20 Fauci says healthy people can go cruising.
3/23-26/20 Cuomo says he’ll need 30K+ ICUs within weeks.
3/25/20 Gestetner tweets the math showing how improbable it is.
