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1.00% to 3.4% was the expected Coronavirus death rate and it led to Covid shutdowns.

0.29% is what the CDC wrote last week the death rate is.

0.10% is the flu death rate.

Turns out that the Flu Crew was more on target than the Doomsday Gang.
Math: CDC says symptomatic cases have a 0.40% death rate. This would be 4K deaths out of 1 million cases. CDC also says 35% cases don’t have symptoms. So 1 million symptomatic cases have about 530K added without symptoms. 4K deaths out of 1.530 mill is a CFR of 0.26% (not 0.29).
Now that Coronavirus’ spread levels did not reach close to 3 times the flu spread even in countries with no real lockdowns, and now that we know from the CDC (and other places) that Covid’s death rate is way lower than feared, enjoy my 3/14/20 tweet.

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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
What would @BilldeBlasio and @NYPDShea choose at this point: That 250,000 Orthodox Jews join protests across Brooklyn, or that Jews should rather go to shul to pray/study while their 10 year olds put up street corner carnivals for their 10 year old friends?
WOW! The same NYC Sheriff vehicle that came around Hasidic-populated neighborhoods in Brooklyn a few days ago to harass small business owners for doing what @Walmart does, has been vandalized this weekend by rioters.

The same governors and mayors who unleashed the full force of their governments against Moms at parks and on small business owners, are now tweeting support for protests that are mostly riots at this point. Covid-19 has respect for a good cause? Gatherings are either good or not!
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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
Cuomo won’t feel what the lockdown is doing to New Yorkers until he stays put at his house for 2 weeks.

“But he is essential.” Ok, but 95% work he can do via Skype/Zoom; 2-3 staff come over. Besides, regardless the reason for moving around, he won’t feel it until he does it.
My take on Cuomo is not suggesting that he is ill intentioned. It’s just an observation as to how he does/does not do certain things. Another point is how he argues that lockdowns are about saving lives while opening is just money. LOOK at suicides/fatal ODs; loss of Dr visits!
Third point on @NYGovCuomo: He thinks THE reason we did not hit 30K - 40K ICUs at Apex as he feared 2-3 weeks out, is lockdowns. But studies show that hospital/ICU rates are simply way lower than what was feared at the time. Yet he does not adjust lockdown policies accordingly.
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Yossi Gestetner
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.@andrewrsorkin The 100K includes deaths with Covid; not just of Covid. Includes probable cases. Includes THOUSANDS of deaths caused by insane policies at hospitals/nursing homes that were implemented as result of panic that was rooted in flawed models. Thank you @JoeSquawk.
The world was shutdown under the assumption that Covid’s death rate is 1.00% to 3.40% of cases. Per the CDC’s paper last week, it is 0.26.

For context, the flu is 0.10%.

If you spread panic/change protocol every flu season, there will likely be a higher death rate on flu.
@kevincorke @JoeSquawk @andrewrsorkin In NY people were told that if they feel symptoms they should stay home. Er, something is attacking the body. Give it a medication to hit back. Nooo. Stay home not to overwhelm the system. Result? Got worse. More people needed the hospital!
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