Thread by @JenniferMerode

Brexit talks risk “stalemate” if there is no progress in the next week's round of negotiations.

“Not many lights in the tunnel” ahead of "crucial round" say EU sources.

theguardian.com/politics/2020/…

In the parallel non-corona universe there shd have been five rounds of EU-UK talks by mid May, but there have only been four and three of those by video link...

While the video-conference experience is getting better (for some) it’s definitely not ideal. “In the normal world you would take Mr Frost to the bar and explore possible solutions,” suggests one diplomat.
One EU source says talks are "constructive", UK has said "tetchy".

But the real problem is not the technology, it’s the massive divide on the substance. When the talks opened in March no one on EU side was expecting much progress by June. Their low expectations have been borne out. Frost-Barnier exchange of letters has only soured the mood.

Says a lot about slow progress of talks (and of course coronavirus) that the format of the June “high-level conference” is undecided.

EU sources expect Boris Johnson to meet leaders of EU institutions, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, rather than EU27.

But that's undecided. EU27 hold a summit on 18/19 June, but that is certain to be dominated by the EU recovery plan and budget.

Nobody on EU side seems worried about BJ threat in February to walk away from talks if no progress in June.

David Frost’s suggestion the EU needs to change its approach has fallen on (predictably) stony ground. I detect zero desire among EU27 to change Barnier’s mandate (which was only agreed in February, after weeks of finessing between EU countries).

More bad news for UK. EU diplomats - who have now read UK texts - back Michel Barnier’s charge that UK is cherry picking. UK sources were withering about Barnier resorting to the “old script”, but British claims of wanting 'the best of Canada' don’t convince.

Here are a handful of areas where the EU thinks the UK is effectively seeking status quo: mutual recognition agreements for industry; professional services, such as law and auditing; energy interconnection on the internal market; rights for lorry drivers and more...

And there is an eye-rolling weariness every time a British negotiator pronounces that the UK is a sovereign state.
The EU say they they know this. They are also sovereign states. That’s why they set the conditions for entry into their market. Hard cheese.

There is a negotiation to be had on level-playing field. And don’t assume it would all go EU’s way. But EU think that UK only want to talk high-flown principles “we are sovereign” rather than nitty-gritty regulations of fair competition. R3 made zero progress on LPF.

Fisheries will be the most interesting area to watch in R4. It’s the one area where Barnier hinted at a tentative opening. EU side knows UK has some leverage.

Privately few EU diplomats think EU position bit much, but that doesn’t translate into any wish to rock the EU27 boat.

And there is no heat in transition extension. No one expects the UK to request it.

Mixed response to @RaoulRuparel PREP idea. Some think interesting. But commission negative: say legally doubtful and oppose handing UK parliament unilateral power to control the transition.

It’s now nearly four years since the UK voted to leave the EU.

Barring fantastical changes, it’s hard to see real progress on a replacement for UK's EU membership emerging in June. And that raises serious doubts about a deal by the end of the year.