Thread by @jeremyfaust

Some people (with medical degrees no less) are saying that the shutdown COST lives.

*That's simply untrue*

*These are SHEEPLE, looking for 15 seconds of fame*

*At the expense of your Mom & Dad's life, or yours*

It could someday. But is hasn't yet.

Let's briefly discuss 1/

In the hot zones, this is what we see.

About 2-3 weeks after the shutdown, the crazy historic spike in all cause deaths starts to improve.

Death rates remain at historic levels in many places, including NJ.

Here's another graph I made for Boston Mayor @marty_walsh's team.

If you didn't know about April, May would be record breaking in terms of all deaths. It's unprecedented.

The number of deaths above normal rates (excess deaths) correlates well to counted covid-19 deaths.

Ok, so what about the gap between covid-19 deaths and all deaths?

We are starting to see data that shows that the gap between those covid19 deaths and all deaths is MOSTLY explained by covid-19 deaths being UNDERCOUNTED.

Again, over time this could change.

At this time, the other causes of death people bandy about are just not based on data.

But even without the specific cause of death data, USE YOUR BRAINS.

Look again at this picture.

If the shutdown cost lives for non-covid reasons, then the curve would not be expected go down 2-3 weeks after shutting down (which is what we see all over).

If the shutdown were costing non-covid lives in significant numbers, the curve would *continue to rise* the longer it went on.

We do not see that.

Staying closed for too long COULD indeed have negative effects, and could increase cancer, heart disease, suicide, and other deaths

But to say that this happened so far?

That's intentionally ignoring the real data or simply not knowing how to read.

We will cover more of this @Brief_19 soon.

Fin.