Ray Dalio had a great chart in mid-2019 that showed the expansions of the monetary base during the endings of long-term debt supercycles.
Here's my updated version for May 2020, based on current data:
Here's my updated version for May 2020, based on current data:
In the early 1930's, private debt as a % of GDP peaked, bank crisis, and dollars were devalued vs gold, but without much CPI inflation.
Then in the more inflationary 1940's war era, federal debt as a % of GDP peaked, and currency was devalued again, this time CPI inflationary.
Then in the more inflationary 1940's war era, federal debt as a % of GDP peaked, and currency was devalued again, this time CPI inflationary.
Wouldn't be surprised to see an echo in this generation.
2010's: private debt as a % of GDP peaks, bank crisis, major QE, but dis-inflationary recapitalization environment
2020's: federal debt as a % of GDP peaks, major crisis spending, eventually CPI inflationary
2010's: private debt as a % of GDP peaks, bank crisis, major QE, but dis-inflationary recapitalization environment
2020's: federal debt as a % of GDP peaks, major crisis spending, eventually CPI inflationary
