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The ratio between equal-weighted and cap-weighted S&P 500 (a measure of performance concentration/breadth) hit a low on Mar 23 (day of overall market bottom), then went sideways and hit a lower low in mid-May.

Now it's testing the upper range of this period. Wider breadth.
IWM/SPY has had similar performance but with a breakout.
Small cap value vs nasdaq 100 keeps making lower lows and lower highs so far.
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Lyn Alden
@LynAldenContact
One of the key ratios I am watching is the Russell Value/Growth ratio.

It tends to pivot shortly before the end of each market cycle, but the pandemic shutdown disproportionally affected value stocks this time, so the question is whether it will pivot during/after this one.
Looking at the latest chart, there are signs of consolidation and a potential bottom, but no clear confirmation.

We've seen these attempted bottoms in the charts in recent years, which ended up not being "the bottom", but they weren't during recessions.
I like to look at equal-weight S&P 500 vs market-weight S&P 500 as well.

Equal outperforms over the long run but tends to have periods of underperformance leading to and during recessions as market leadership changes.

(The #1 stock in SPX in the previous recession was $XOM)
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Lyn Alden
@LynAldenContact
Ray Dalio had a great chart in mid-2019 that showed the expansions of the monetary base during the endings of long-term debt supercycles.

Here's my updated version for May 2020, based on current data:
This was the original from @raydalio:
linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm…
In the early 1930's, private debt as a % of GDP peaked, bank crisis, and dollars were devalued vs gold, but without much CPI inflation.

Then in the more inflationary 1940's war era, federal debt as a % of GDP peaked, and currency was devalued again, this time CPI inflationary.
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Lyn Alden
@LynAldenContact
Some quick charts on Berkshire.

Price/Book is roughly at 2011 levels, which also puts it within range of where he has historically said that he'd be willing to do buybacks:
Berkshire's stock price relative to 5 years and 10 years of average real earnings is similarly inexpensive.
Buffett gets flack for holding so much cash, but at his shareholder meeting, he said it really wasn't that much.

He's actually right based on relative terms. At 36.9%, Berkshire's cash as a percentage of book value is historically typical:
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