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BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak

We added Mongolia (see recent tweet) to our Winners circle. Zero transmissions ever! All cases were imported with caution. Not accidental: They did everything. Congratulations!

We have 49 countries! Who will be the 50th?

endcoronavirus.org/countries Image
US yesterday 19,056.

Virginia yesterday new high 1,483, today now even higher 1,615.

NY not clearly decreasing for the past week. NJ increases and decrease. Warning signs from partial opening.

Over 1,000 cases per day is super high for considering opening up. ImageImageImageImage
Illinois still doesn't show a decrease

California increasing significantly

Massachusetts declining, making progress

Pennsylvania decreasing slowly ImageImageImageImage
Texas seems to be better, but today back to 1,051

Michigan decline is signficant current weekly average is 300 down below 1/5 of peak

Florida is increasing and reports suggest not providing true data.

Maryland slow increase for three weeks, yesterday 835. ImageImageImageImage
Rhode Island significant decrease

Vermont average for two weeks below 5. Need to get to zero.

Alaska and Hawaii almost zero. ImageImageImageImage
Montana almost all the way zero! 4 days in a row no cases, today no cases yet. Great! Image
Puerto Rico and West Virginia were Green recently but now with outbreaks, they are Red. Time to act! ImageImageImageImage
Mississippi increasing

Minnesota increasing

North Carolina accelerating ImageImageImage
Brazilian fire plot attached. Incredibly tragic. Image
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More from @yaneerbaryam see all

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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID: CT-scans can identify who to isolate to stop transmission much better then PCR.

— A thread

Links for the impatient:
necsi.edu/combining-pcr-…
endcoronavirus.org/papers/combini…

1/9
WHAT: The usual COVID PCR test has 30% false negatives: one in three is told they don’t have it when they do. They don’t isolate so many more are infected. CT-scans can see viral pneumonia (including COVID) and isolate people. Then, multiple RT-PCR can be used to confirm COVID.
RESULT: CT-scan compared to PCR by itself reduces cases after 60 days by as much as 50X, reduction of R is 0.20. We can achieve rapid extinction of COVID with social distancing, CT-scans and contact tracing.

3/9
Read 10 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
What is the important information?

Expected transmission: how many new cases and where

1) Indicator: Number of new cases in last few days (recent transmission), and its day to day changes (network connectivity = R)

(not total cases that happened so far)
2) Mechanism: Cases that transmit over next few days in local area are due to new cases in last 14 days

Indicator: number of cases in last 14 days in a travel connected area

(not total cases that happened so far)
3) Note: Remove from the count in (2) cases of the last 14 days if (a) they are already quarantined (e.g. due traveler quarantine or contact tracing), (b) their recent contacts were immediately isolated.

(contact tracing in action)
Read 4 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak New Winners!

Very pleased to announce:
Bosnia is a Winner! Congratulations!
Israel is a Winner! Congratulations!
Tanzania is a Winner! Congratulations!
The Bahamas is a Winner! Congratulations!

South Korea made it back! Congratulations!
North Macedonia and Mali are now, hopefully only for a short time, back to Yellow. Djibouti outbreak to Red.

Additional countries have been included in our list.

Somalia enters the list at yellow.

48 Winning Countries!

endcoronavirus.org/countries
In other updates:

UK is down to half of peak.

Switzerland is at 21 new cases per day recent average.
Read 4 tweets

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