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I couldn’t have quantified it. But I could feel it. We all could. That was fun. And terrifying.
Some carnage for the fishermen.
My brain can’t begin to comprehend these numbers. I just know they are big.

Thankfully BofA helped a bit...
Does BofA even look at stonks?
Should have stuck with my gut. Damn furniture...

PS. Easier to say in hindsight. And, it’s still early. But damn it.
CEO “confidence”
More evidence that the stock market isn’t the economy.
Let’s file this in predictions bound to be wrong. Still interesting...
Consumer confidence
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Bill Brewster
@BillBrewsterSCG
1/ I've been getting vocally more bullish, which is bound to be (a) early or (b) wrong. Because that's what the market does to those that are loud.

That said, there's a lot of bad news priced in. Things look dark. And, if you follow some of these "hedge fund hotels..."
2/ and a space like Energy MLPs (shoutout @mr_skilling and @kylerhasson) you'll see some massive pain was taken this past week. There's bound to be more pain ahead.

That said, just as the path of losing the airline bet I made was impossibly difficult to predict...
3/ the path of outcomes from this virus is also very difficult to predict.

Trigger warning: This next comment is entirely market related and not at all a comment about what is right or wrong -

It's very possible that we see the conversation shift from...
Read 9 tweets
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Bill Brewster
@BillBrewsterSCG
JPM says Jamie Dimon is very well and is engaged in 2 calls per day.

👍🏻👍🏻
JPM on how quickly COVID-19 dissipates on surfaces:
97% dissipation in 24 hrs on stainless steel
97% dissipation in 8 hrs on cardboard
99% dissipation in 8 hrs on copper
98% dissipation in 48 hrs on plastic
JPM - It would be weird to bet again drug companies being successful. It’s not unlikely that we relax lockdowns in 6-8 weeks.
Read 21 tweets
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Bill Brewster
@BillBrewsterSCG
Just had a long convo about the dominance of $wday, $crm, $msft, etc. the question I can’t ever understand is why $wday has ALL (or damn close) if it’s OCF in SBC.

The answer must lie in a sales force sized for a ramp and developers in anticipation of operating leverage.
However, you’re paying like $40Bn for a company that generates no real FCF. So, what’s the underlying assumption of an optimized cost structure and/or terminal margins and FCF?

And why don’t some of these companies end up with viable competitors after they raise price? Or...
Is the bet that they are going to be winner take all and scale is going to enable them to price at a sustainable advantage?

Any help on the framework of how to think through which moats are the most durable, terminal vs current economics, etc would be greatly appreciated.
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