Thread by @BillBrewsterSCG

JPM says Jamie Dimon is very well and is engaged in 2 calls per day.

👍🏻👍🏻

JPM on how quickly COVID-19 dissipates on surfaces:
97% dissipation in 24 hrs on stainless steel
97% dissipation in 8 hrs on cardboard
99% dissipation in 8 hrs on copper
98% dissipation in 48 hrs on plastic

JPM - It would be weird to bet again drug companies being successful. It’s not unlikely that we relax lockdowns in 6-8 weeks.

JPM - market could bottom when infection rates peak. Then people can get optimistic again.

88% of all deaths in Italy are over 70. This is unlikely to have as big of an impact as Spanish Flu given fatality distribution.

*to bet against

Hospital beds per person an fatality may be inversely correlated (not exactly rocket science here).

Peep that multiple contraction.

"A lot of what you are seeing in the unwind is fast leveraged money moving out [rather than long term money]."

People are borrowing the ETF to go short.

PS. I don't fully understand why this is.

Correlations have gone to 1. There should be some good stock picking opportunities.

Hello to the spreads blowing out....

"Credit people are referring to it as cheap bonds falling from the sky and if they had enough money they'd be buying all of them."

Equities dont have to be your only answer....

For those of you worried about next year's "E." Some base rates for you.

On average it's taken around 3 years for earnings to recover to where they were. What is being priced in right now?

"What markets are now requiring is investment professionals to determine if this is The Great Depression [or not]."

Almost certain Howard Marks said a similar thing to @manualofideas this week.

People are resilient. Could be a Bagholder Quote...

The vast majority of Spanish Flu deaths can be attributed to a lack of antibiotics preventing secondary respiratory issues.

Is this worse than the Civil War?

JPM not sounding too bullish on the ability of EM to recover as quickly. cc by exfellow $bud shareholders.

Historical examples...

"This time around it isn't defaults, it's infection rates. I wouldn't be surprised if markets bottom before [the worst headlines.]"

Watch financials! I know, I know, lol.