1/ I've been getting vocally more bullish, which is bound to be (a) early or (b) wrong. Because that's what the market does to those that are loud.
That said, there's a lot of bad news priced in. Things look dark. And, if you follow some of these "hedge fund hotels..."
That said, there's a lot of bad news priced in. Things look dark. And, if you follow some of these "hedge fund hotels..."
2/ and a space like Energy MLPs (shoutout @mr_skilling and @kylerhasson) you'll see some massive pain was taken this past week. There's bound to be more pain ahead.
That said, just as the path of losing the airline bet I made was impossibly difficult to predict...
That said, just as the path of losing the airline bet I made was impossibly difficult to predict...
3/ the path of outcomes from this virus is also very difficult to predict.
Trigger warning: This next comment is entirely market related and not at all a comment about what is right or wrong -
It's very possible that we see the conversation shift from...
Trigger warning: This next comment is entirely market related and not at all a comment about what is right or wrong -
It's very possible that we see the conversation shift from...
4/ It's wrong to choose whether the elderly and/or sick should live or die to "look at what the negative consequences to the young are here." Likely a huge and devastating human toll from that decision. Also, not terrible for the market.
5/ Conversely, in a more upbeat view, it's also not inconceivable that we bend the curve, get more optimistic, and people rally around a common cause.
There are more ways to "win" in the market than I see discussed.
There are more ways to "win" in the market than I see discussed.
6/ The most bearish case, in my opinion, is we continue down this path for an extended time period. I don't think that's nearly the most probable outcome.
Further, tech/biotech, and pharma could really surprise to the upside here. The world is focused on a common cause.
Further, tech/biotech, and pharma could really surprise to the upside here. The world is focused on a common cause.
7/ Meanwhile, valuations have come in and there is FINALLY yield in credit. So, I am keeping cash on the sidelines in cash stuff gets really really bad but I have been reducing my cash exposure over the past week (specifically since Wednesday).
8/ All that said, I'm not trying to make some hero call here. So I am going to be very careful to deploy further cash unless things get stupid cheap.
By the way, some smart people are saying things are stupid cheap in spots.
GLTA
By the way, some smart people are saying things are stupid cheap in spots.
GLTA
PS. IM NOT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. JUST SHARING THOUGHTS ABOUT MY APPROACH.
