In this sense the struggle dynamics resemble a coup against a leader more than say a scandal-ridden minister being picked off.
In this context even if Dominic Cummings survives this scandal it will merely be the 1st hit in a war.
Cummings will attempt to crush all those that tried to topple him - the situation will be like Thatcher after the first leadership challenge - a cold truce at best.
People confused that so many pro Brexit Tory MPs are trying to force Cummings out need to understand...
For Boris Johnson - Cummings is a tool to obtain & keep power.
For pro Brexit MPs - Cummings was a tool merely to get Brexit.
The two things are not the same.
Even if Cummings survives this - a man never trusts those he’s cheated.
Cabinet will have to be stuffed now with Cummings loyalists as the sane end of the Conservative party waits for a chance to force Johnson’s hand.
To get rid of Cummings will now mean to lose Johnson.
Just 2 months ago the idea of deposing Johnson would have been absurd - now less so.
The smarter MPs will now be happy to let Johnson “own” Coronavirus & perhaps even Brexit - but I now no longer think Johnson will stay till 2024.
He cannot win a Cummings civil war..
Johnson is the way MPs got power in 2019 but as soon as he becomes a liability - which seems to be already happening) the Cummings debacle ensures all loyalty gone - he knows this.
It’s now a war of attrition & plots.
The Tory leadership campaign has begun.
/Ends
