Thread by @eccemarco

Today's episode of "Very confident in our forecasts, especially when they are seriously wrong".

Some of the predictions and confident statements made by the Swedish strategists #coronasverige #CoronaVirusSverige #SwedenInDenial #BytStrategiNu (image below by @edalmaxwell)

Remember that time when Tegnell was saying out loud that herd immunity was the answer to the corona virus? Those were the days

March 26th, when cases were rising steeply, but some insisted "We have a stable situation"

. @kindrobot_org has compiled an entire collection at this link kindrobot.org/article/sweden…, will screenshot some gems in the following tweets. We were hoping for a peak on Monday or Tuesday (i.e. March 10th, 4200 deaths ago)

"We are more in a plateau position than before", they said on April 8th, just as we were about to enter the two worst weeks

https://twitter.com/eccemarco/status/1247880955479478273

"I believe that the worst is over", said the FHM on March 5th
omni.se/tegnell-om-vir… via @Elisabethis

"Herd immunity in Stockholm in May", said Tegnell during this interview from April 16th to Norwegian media.
Incredulous, the journalist asked "May? How do you know?" "Based on our mathematical models", replied Tegnell nrk.no/video/-flokkim…

"It will be close to a flu", Tegnell said on March 4th
expressen.se/tv/nyheter/sta…

Giesecke on April 21st: 99% of those who caught corona did not even notice
aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/P9xV…

At the end of April, 20-25% of the people in Stockholm have been infected, writes Giesecke on The Lancet. He mistrusts other papers because not peer-reviewed, but his guess was based on a "personal communication"

And the cure was also a "rapid spread and rapid herd immunity", of course vk.se/2020-03-22/gie…

Important caveat:
In conditions of complexity and uncertainty (that's where I have some expertise) I am well aware that it is incredibly difficult to make accurate predictions -when not straight out impossible. Everybody gets things wrong, so why my thread?

Because when we are dealing with uncertainty and especially risks, it's not about the forecast being wrong, it's about the *consequences* of deciding based on uncertain or opaque evidence. If you don't know, don't take risky bets

And what truly amazes me is a) the confidence with which they made forecasts b) their continuous dismissal of risks and c) their inability to change their minds in the face of new data. All of this combined has contributed to the disastrous consequences we are experiencing
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