Here is why I worry about 3 million new UI claims 10 weeks in: what business is temporarily laying off workers now? At this point, it seems more likely to be business failures.
@ernietedeschi @nick_bunker @bencasselman you guys thinking this as well? Like trying to imagine who these businesses are, why they are deciding on layoffs now at 10x the normal rate. Some govt too, also a bad sign.
Let me put this really pithily so all the journalists can include a quote of it in their reports:
That millions are still being laid off this late into the pandemic suggests that the layoffs are increasingly the result of businesses closing permanently rather than temporarily.
That millions are still being laid off this late into the pandemic suggests that the layoffs are increasingly the result of businesses closing permanently rather than temporarily.
It is hard to imagine many businesses that ten weeks in are deciding to cut back, and much easier to imagine going out of business at this point.
