Thread by @RyanMillerNFL

♨️ROOKIE WR MODEL: 2020 ♨️

We’re back with arguably the most comprehensive analytical dive into the monster 2020 rookie WR class you’ll find out there! Follow along as we evaluate each prospect in 4 different views: athleticism, production, opportunity, and WR1 ability

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Just like the rookie RB thread, we’ll start off with a TL;DR ranking 🙏🏼

Disagree? Read along before you comment!

First Up: Athleticism

Unfortunately, COVID-19 has really prevented our ability to gain athleticism info from this class due to the lack of pro days. While the data is missing for some, we can still see this is a historically athletic group bound to make an instant impact

Part 2: Production

Next, a player’s ability to dominate in college is a major predictor of their ability to translate to the NFL. By looking at the market shares they earned by the end of their career, we can see the overall trust a player earned from his QB & coaches

Part 3: Opportunity

This is a MAJOR factor. No matter how gifted a player is, there are only so many targets to go around. By looking at each team’s vacated targets (from retirement or FA), we can see which rookies have the easiest path to immediate playing time!

(Cont.)

Incorporating opportunity into my study last year would’ve analyzed Darius Slayton as a “Success!” as his college production tested well, & the opportunity for targets right away was obvious. Coupled with 1-2 injuries, my model had Slayton as a high upside rookie pick last year!

By adjusting the total amount of targets according to QB play, and the location/comp % of said targets, we are able to weight a rookie’s freed up targets to find those most valuable for fantasy

++ Jefferson, Lamb (esp slot!) Pittman
- - H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, C. Claypool

Part 4: WR1 ability

These pics are a lot, but what they show is a look at WHERE each player earned their targets, separated by down & distance

Those w/ a higher % of “Clutch Down” receptions proved to perform when the stakes are highest, and also shows proven RZ leaders as well

Generally, earning 25%+ in each of the 4 factors (early downs, clutch downs, RZ rec, & RZ TDs) is an indicator for NFL success at a WR1 level on their team.

Looking at you, Lamb/Jefferson/Aiyuk/Pittman 👀

WRs who seem destined for purely role positions at most are listed in red

When combining the insights from all 4 studies into one success profile, SIX look to be instant “Success!” candidates. In order of testing metrics:

CeeDee Lamb
Jerry Jeudy
Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins

Through a dynasty lens, here are my ranks!

Finally, here is a look at my ranks vs. current ADP supplied by @DLFootball

I hope you enjoyed this study and I am happy to elaborate on any of the 4 separate studies performed!

(Hop on the Pittman train @LateRoundQB, it’s okay) 😜

S/O to @ScottBarrettDFB @FFzinger @pahowdy @dwainmcfarland @RayGQue and @angelo_fantasy for always pushing me to do the best work possible, because you all deserve that!