Thread by @RyanMillerNFL

THREAD: A Case Against Marlon Mack??

Not exactly. BUT, here’s why I think his dynasty value is overvalued in the dynasty community compared to where he should be. Let’s get started! (1/8)

First up is Mack’s NFL production. After battling through some nagging injuries, Mack’s 2018 YPC naturally increased now that he’s behind one of the best OLs in football. His line has driven a lot of his hype (as it should), and Mack was on a 16 gm pace for 1k yards in 2018 (2/8)

Mack finished RB20 in PPR in 10 starts, so ofc a 6’ 210 lb receiving back should be a low-end RB1/premium RB2 over a full season, right?

This is where looking into the stats paints a different picture. Mack is not a receiving RB at all, despite what the public claims... (3/8)

One of the most missed questions in my quiz was pinning down Mack’s target and receiving totals last season.

When asked to rank Mack’s rec among Fournette, A Jones (8 gm), and J. Howard, 85% of the public overvalued his receiving work... (4/8)

When asked to match [CMC, J White, Tarik, Jaylen Samuels in 3! starts, T. Cannon, R. Freeman, T Riddick, J. Richard, Ekeler, & Mack] to their target count, 79.3% overestimated Mack’s receiving, while 31.9% of people thought he had nearly DOUBLE his targets! (5/8)

While some may think Mack’s rec work will increase as his experience increases, I don’t think that’s the case with Nyheim Hines in the picture. Frank Reich comes from a RBBC Eagles offense, & that stuck in the receiving game last year. Hines is an exceptional receiver, too (6/8)

Even w/o a ton of rec work, RBs can achieve mid-low RB1 stats though, right?

Not so much in today’s NFL

Looking at 2018 top 20 PPR RB, the evolution of today’s game is evident. 1k Rushing backs can fall anywhere, but 50 rec, 500 yd RBs are squarely found in RB1 territory. (7/8)

This lack of rec work severely limits the overall upside of Mack, no matter how elite his Offensive Line is and how great their offense can be. His ADP has shot up as offseason Twitter claims him to be a strong RB1, but I think his price should level off exactly where it is now.

I do like Mack as a dynasty asset and agree he’s a solid starting roster piece, but to think he’ll contribute significantly in PPR is a misconception going around Twitter lately. I have him as a mid-low RB2 in dynasty, as opposed to the top 10ish range I’ve seen him in so often!

@FF_TomB @ClutchFantasy @_JamesTheBrain @JetPackGalileo all deserve more follows if you aren’t following them already!! Extremely great content producers in the industry