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Hostage to fortune predictions on UK-EU negotiations...

Next week - no great progress reported, both sides play to domestic audience
Later in June - leaders summit instructs negotiators to redouble efforts over summer towards a deal
September - real political negotiations
Negotiators can only try to find the wiggle room around the red lines, ultimately the political leaders have to decide on the importance of compromise or no-deal. And right now neither side is ready for that conversation.
Among other jobs of negotiators - create the scenario in which both sides leaders can claim victory. The reality doesn't have to match.

Anyway, I might regret this thread very soon... but will try to prepare to put the blame on others...
PS assuming that there is no extension, which I think is now quite a safe assumption as the need to say no to Europe is still more important than the detail. That only real UK red line (claiming victory over the EU) is harder to forecast in September.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Meanwhile the animal welfare debate continues in the Conservative Party. Here Shanker Singham presents well the orthodox US case of EU protectionism in agriculture. It isn't though the whole story... conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…
In particular I think this interpretation is simply outdated - if a world trade system can't take account of animal welfare or climate change then it isn't fit for purpose in the 21st century. Applied in a non-discriminatory way countries should be able to set such standards.
If Brexit means sovereignty is more important than economic growth, as I am repeatedly told with regard to an EU trade deal, then that should also apply to us not simply taking a US approach to agriculture to secure a trade deal. Let's decide on our own approach.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Some in the UK government evidently still think trade negotiations can be completed in weeks even if no other countries have ever managed this. ft.com/content/96dfdc…
Meanwhile on the wilder fringes of the Brexit movement we're going to threaten the EU with a trade war, and will continue to do so even after a deal... ukandeu.ac.uk/how-the-euro-s…
"democratic decision of the people" is the sort of language that used to be associated with communist bloc countries in the 1980s to mean a decision taken by a handful of people at the centre...
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Is 'Get Brexit Done' the only thing the government thinks unites their MPs? Get Brexit Done and make MPs queue a kilometre to vote? Get Brexit Done by keeping Cummings even though leading Brexit supporting MPs thought differently?
Yes, but but but 'Get Brexit Done'...
'Get Brexit Done' so the government can give lots of money to the 'industries of the future' which we can only hope will succeed but about which there are already a lot of concerns...
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